Monaco
vs
Gornik Zabrze
4 – 1 Full time
Monaco vs Gornik Zabrze overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monaco vs Gornik Zabrze
| Probability | Monaco | Draw | Gornik Zabrze |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.1% | 25.2% | 28.7% |
| Market | 69.7% | 18.3% | 12.0% |
| Final | 63.8% | 20.0% | 16.2% |
| Edge | -23.6% | +6.9% | +16.8% |
Why Monaco
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.78 vs 1.38.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monaco and Gornik Zabrze expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Monaco and Gornik Zabrze attack and defence ratings
Monaco
Gornik Zabrze
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Monaco vs Gornik Zabrze: result vs prediction
Monaco 4 – 1 Gornik Zabrze
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Playoff round fixtures
Before and after this match
Monaco vs Gornik Zabrze markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 63.8% | 1.57 | -23.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.8% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.0% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monaco | 63.8% |
| Draw | 20.0% | |
| Gornik Zabrze | 16.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% |
| No | 36.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Monaco win | 25.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 54.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-2 | 7.2% |
Monaco vs Gornik Zabrze stats
Monaco and Gornik Zabrze recent form
| Monaco |
WWLLWD |
| Gornik Zabrze |
LWDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monaco vs Gornik Zabrze head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Gornik Zabrze | Monaco | UEFA Europa Conference League | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Monaco vs Gornik Zabrze odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 69.7%, draw 18.3%, away 12.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.31 | 5.10 | 9.25 |
| 1xBet | 1.36 | 5.25 | 8.45 |
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 5.25 | 7.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.25 | 8.50 |
| Betano | 1.40 | 5.50 | 7.80 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 4.75 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.34 | 5.60 | 8.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.33 | 4.95 | 8.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.37 | 5.10 | 7.19 |
| SBO | 1.31 | 4.46 | 6.38 |
| Superbet | 1.35 | 5.20 | 7.00 |
| Unibet | 1.35 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| William Hill | 1.35 | 4.60 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .