Marseille
vs
Strasbourg
4 – 0 Full time
Marseille vs Strasbourg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Marseille vs Strasbourg
| Probability | Marseille | Draw | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.8% | 20.2% | 27.0% |
| Market | 54.9% | 23.3% | 21.8% |
| Final | 54.4% | 22.5% | 23.1% |
| Edge | -2.1% | -3.1% | +5.2% |
Why Marseille
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.36 vs 1.38.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Marseille and Strasbourg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.73
Marseille and Strasbourg attack and defence ratings
Marseille
Strasbourg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Marseille vs Strasbourg: result vs prediction
Marseille 4 – 0 Strasbourg
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Marseille vs Strasbourg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marseille | 54.4% | 1.84 | -2.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.5% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.2% | 2.31 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marseille | 54.4% |
| Draw | 22.5% | |
| Strasbourg | 23.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.9% |
| No | 27.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Marseille win | 35.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.3% | |
| Loss | 43.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.4% |
| 1-1 | 7.4% | |
| 2-2 | 6.9% |
Marseille vs Strasbourg stats
Marseille and Strasbourg recent form
| Marseille |
WWLDLW |
| Strasbourg |
WWDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Marseille vs Strasbourg head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Marseille | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
| 2025-09-26 | Strasbourg | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2025-01-19 | Marseille | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2024-09-29 | Strasbourg | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2024-01-12 | Marseille | Strasbourg | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-25 | Strasbourg | Marseille | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Marseille vs Strasbourg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.9%, draw 23.3%, away 21.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.67 | 4.20 | 4.35 |
| 1xBet | 1.79 | 4.36 | 4.40 |
| 888Sport | 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 4.10 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 4.10 | 4.35 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.76 | 4.10 | 4.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 4.30 | 4.33 |
| Pinnacle | 1.75 | 4.12 | 4.56 |
| SBO | 1.73 | 3.57 | 3.73 |
| Superbet | 1.78 | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| Unibet | 1.68 | 3.95 | 4.50 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .