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Ligue 1 · Full time ·Matchday 1

Estac Troyes vs Paris FC

0 – 0 Full time

Stade de l'Aube, TroyesReferee: Marc Bollengier

Estac Troyes 37%
Draw 26%
Paris FC 38%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Estac Troyes vs Paris FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Estac Troyes vs Paris FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityEstac TroyesDrawParis FC
Model58.7%21.2%20.1%
Market29.1%27.0%43.8%
Final36.5%25.6%37.9%
Edge+29.6%-5.8%-23.7%

Confidence: Medium

Why Paris FC

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Estac Troyes ↓ / Paris FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 10% 5% 2 9% 10% 6% 3 6% 7% 4+ 5% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 63%
No goals 4%

Estac Troyes and Paris FC expected goals

Estac Troyes 2.20
Paris FC 1.14

Total expected goals: 3.34

Estac Troyes and Paris FC attack and defence ratings

Estac Troyes

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 0.78 -22%

Paris FC

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 1.04 +4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Estac Troyes vs Paris FC: result vs prediction

Estac Troyes 0 – 0 Paris FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Ligue 1

Before and after this match

Estac Troyes vs Paris FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Paris FC 37.9% 2.64 -23.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 62.8% 1.59 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.1% 1.66 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.4% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 80.0% 1.25 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Estac Troyes36.5%
Draw25.6%
Paris FC37.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562.8%
Under 2.537.2%
Both teams to scoreYes60.1%
No39.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.1%
12 (either side)74.4%
X2 (draw or away)63.5%
Handicap -1Paris FC win7.7%
Push (exactly one goal)12.3%
Loss80.0%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.8%
1-19.7%
2-08.5%

Estac Troyes vs Paris FC stats

Estac Troyes and Paris FC recent form

newest first
Estac Troyes LWWWLD
Paris FC WLWLWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Estac Troyes vs Paris FC head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Estac Troyes vs Paris FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 29.1%, draw 27.0%, away 43.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.90 3.45 2.30
1xBet 3.35 3.82 2.19
888Sport 3.10 3.50 2.10
Bet365 3.30 3.40 2.15
BetVictor 3.20 3.60 2.15
Betano 3.25 3.50 2.18
Betfair 3.30 3.50 2.20
Dafabet 3.30 3.55 2.20
Marathonbet 3.30 3.76 2.16
Pinnacle 3.39 3.58 2.20
SBO 3.05 3.39 2.14
Superbet 3.25 3.55 2.20
Unibet 3.25 3.30 2.14
William Hill 3.10 3.50 2.10
winamax_fr 3.20 3.55 2.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.25 ▲ +0.23
X 3.50 —
2 2.16 ▼ -0.14

7 snapshots recorded, from .