Lens vs Auxerre overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lens vs Auxerre
| Probability | Lens | Draw | Auxerre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.9% | 18.2% | 13.9% |
| Market | 61.0% | 22.2% | 16.8% |
| Final | 62.7% | 21.2% | 16.1% |
| Edge | +6.9% | -4.0% | -2.9% |
Why Lens
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 0.99.
- The market prices Lens below the model: +6.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lens and Auxerre expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.49
Lens and Auxerre attack and defence ratings
Lens
Auxerre
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lens vs Auxerre: result vs prediction
Lens 5 – 2 Auxerre
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lens vs Auxerre markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lens | 62.7% | 1.59 | +6.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.9% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Lens win | 45.7% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lens | 62.7% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Auxerre | 16.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.3% |
| No | 42.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lens win | 45.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 32.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 9.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-1 | 8.3% |
Lens vs Auxerre stats
Lens vs Auxerre head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Lens | Auxerre | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Auxerre | Lens | Ligue 1 | 1-2 |
| 2025-04-27 | Lens | Auxerre | Ligue 1 | 0-4 |
| 2024-12-14 | Auxerre | Lens | Ligue 1 | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lens vs Auxerre odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.0%, draw 22.2%, away 16.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.54 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 1xBet | 1.60 | 4.57 | 5.89 |
| 888Sport | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.20 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.10 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.35 | 5.70 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.56 | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.57 | 4.50 | 5.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.56 | 4.46 | 5.89 |
| SBO | 1.51 | 3.86 | 4.84 |
| Superbet | 1.57 | 4.40 | 5.55 |
| Unibet | 1.52 | 4.10 | 5.80 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .