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Ligue 1 · Full time ·Matchday 1

Le Mans vs Brest

2 – 2 Full time

MMArena, Le MansReferee: Aurelien Petit

Le Mans 45%
Draw 26%
Brest 29%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Le Mans vs Brest overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Le Mans vs Brest

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLe MansDrawBrest
Model68.1%19.1%12.8%
Market37.9%28.3%33.8%
Final45.5%26.0%28.5%
Edge+30.2%-9.2%-21.0%

Confidence: Medium

Why Le Mans

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.31 vs 0.83.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Le Mans below the model: +30.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Le Mans ↓ / Brest → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 9% 2 12% 10% 3 9% 7% 4+ 8% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 58%
No goals 5%

Le Mans and Brest expected goals

Le Mans 2.31
Brest 0.83

Total expected goals: 3.14

Le Mans and Brest attack and defence ratings

Le Mans

Attack 1.17 +17%
Defence 0.71 -29%

Brest

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 1.23 +23%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Le Mans vs Brest: result vs prediction

Le Mans 2 – 2 Brest

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

Ligue 1

Before and after this match

Le Mans vs Brest markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Le Mans 45.5% 2.20 +30.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 58.4% 1.71 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.6% 1.98 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.0% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Le Mans win 44.6% 2.24 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Le Mans45.5%
Draw26.0%
Brest28.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558.4%
Under 2.541.6%
Both teams to scoreYes50.6%
No49.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.5%
12 (either side)74.0%
X2 (draw or away)54.5%
Handicap -1Le Mans win44.6%
Push (exactly one goal)23.6%
Loss31.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-011.6%
1-010.4%
2-19.7%

Le Mans vs Brest stats

Le Mans and Brest recent form

newest first
Le Mans WDDWDW
Brest DLLLDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Le Mans vs Brest head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Le Mans vs Brest odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 37.9%, draw 28.3%, away 33.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.48 3.50 2.64
1xBet 2.59 3.58 2.86
888Sport 2.45 3.30 2.63
Bet365 2.50 3.30 2.80
BetVictor 2.50 3.40 2.75
Betano 2.50 3.35 2.82
Betfair 2.55 3.30 2.88
Dafabet 2.55 3.40 2.85
Marathonbet 2.55 3.52 2.81
Pinnacle 2.61 3.36 2.88
SBO 2.40 3.22 2.76
Superbet 2.55 3.35 2.85
Unibet 2.48 3.35 2.70
William Hill 2.45 3.30 2.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.50 ▼ -0.05
X 3.35 ▼ -0.06
2 2.81 ▲ +0.11

6 snapshots recorded, from .