Paris FC vs Nice overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Paris FC vs Nice
| Probability | Paris FC | Draw | Nice |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.3% | 21.3% | 19.4% |
| Market | 44.9% | 28.6% | 26.6% |
| Final | 48.5% | 26.8% | 24.8% |
| Edge | +14.4% | -7.2% | -7.2% |
Why Paris FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.16 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Paris FC below the model: +14.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Paris FC and Nice expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.26
Paris FC and Nice attack and defence ratings
Paris FC
Nice
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Paris FC vs Nice: result vs prediction
Paris FC 3 – 0 Nice
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Paris FC vs Nice markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris FC | 48.5% | 2.06 | +14.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.1% | 2.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Paris FC | 48.5% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Nice | 24.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.5% |
| No | 41.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 51.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Paris FC win | 36.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 41.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 9.9% |
| 1-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 9.0% |
Paris FC vs Nice stats
Paris FC vs Nice head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Paris FC | Nice | Ligue 1 | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Nice | Paris FC | Ligue 1 | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Paris FC vs Nice odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.7%, draw 28.5%, away 26.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.45 |
| 1xBet | 2.13 | 3.52 | 3.81 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.14 | 3.35 | 3.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.10 | 3.46 | 3.75 |
| Pinnacle | 2.09 | 3.41 | 3.79 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 2.99 | 3.19 |
| Unibet | 2.08 | 3.25 | 3.50 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| winamax_de | 2.10 | 3.35 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .