Garuda Lions
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Ligue 1 · Full time ·Matchday 3

Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco

1 – 2 Full time

31′Marquinhos
52′VandersonJ. Teze
58′Nazinho
63′W. Zaire-EmeryL. Hernandez
63′D. DoueF. Torres
68′Lucas Hernández
68′Jordan Teze
68′M. AklioucheO. Dembele
68′K. KvaratskheliaM. Godts
72′S. Idumbo
73′M. CoulibalyA. Soubeir
73′P. BrunnerM. Abline
76′F. RuizD. Fernandez
87′S. IdumboC. Mawissa
87′A. GolovinS. Benzahra

Parc des Princes, ParisReferee: Jerome Brisard

Paris Saint Germain 63%
Draw 19%
Monaco 18%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

23 Shots 4
10 Shots on target 2
68 Possession % 32
6 Corners 0
9 Fouls 11
5 Offsides 2
0 Saves 9
688 Accurate passes 293

Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityParis Saint GermainDrawMonaco
Model42.6%23.2%34.2%
Market70.2%17.2%12.6%
Final63.3%18.7%18.0%
Edge-27.5%+6.0%+21.5%

Confidence: High

Why Paris Saint Germain

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.57.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Paris Saint Ge ↓ / Monaco → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 1 6% 10% 8% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 5% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 65%
No goals 4%

Paris Saint Germain and Monaco expected goals

Paris Saint Germain 1.87
Monaco 1.57

Total expected goals: 3.44

Paris Saint Germain and Monaco attack and defence ratings

Paris Saint Germain

Attack 1.18 +18%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Monaco

Attack 1.34 +34%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco: result vs prediction

Paris Saint Germain 1 – 2 Monaco

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Ligue 1

Before and after this match

Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Paris Saint Germain 63.3% 1.58 -27.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 65.0% 1.54 — —
Both teams to score Yes 66.1% 1.51 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 82.0% 1.22 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 57.3% 1.75 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Paris Saint Germain63.3%
Draw18.7%
Monaco18.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565.0%
Under 2.535.0%
Both teams to scoreYes66.1%
No33.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)82.0%
12 (either side)81.3%
X2 (draw or away)36.7%
Handicap -1Paris Saint Germain win22.9%
Push (exactly one goal)19.9%
Loss57.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.1%
2-18.7%
1-27.7%

Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco stats

Paris Saint Germain and Monaco recent form

newest first
Paris Saint Germain DDDLWW
Monaco WWWWLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Paris Saint Germain wins 2Draws 3Monaco wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-06Paris Saint GermainMonacoLigue 11-3
2026-02-25Paris Saint GermainMonacoUEFA Champions League2-2
2026-02-17MonacoParis Saint GermainUEFA Champions League2-3
2025-11-29MonacoParis Saint GermainLigue 11-0
2025-02-07Paris Saint GermainMonacoLigue 14-1
2025-01-05Paris Saint GermainMonacoTrophée des Champions1-0
2024-12-18MonacoParis Saint GermainLigue 12-4
2024-03-01MonacoParis Saint GermainLigue 10-0
2023-11-24Paris Saint GermainMonacoLigue 15-2
2023-02-11MonacoParis Saint GermainLigue 13-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Paris Saint Germain vs Monaco odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 70.2%, draw 17.2%, away 12.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.37 5.40 6.40
1xBet 1.38 5.84 8.30
Bet365 1.33 5.75 7.00
BetVictor 1.33 5.50 8.00
Betano 1.38 5.80 7.80
Betfair 1.33 5.50 7.50
Dafabet 1.35 6.00 7.60
Marathonbet 1.34 5.95 8.50
Pinnacle 1.35 5.88 8.08
SBO 1.36 4.55 5.90
Superbet 1.43 5.20 6.50
Unibet 1.33 5.50 7.50
William Hill 1.33 5.00 7.50
winamax_de 1.35 5.30 6.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.35 —
X 5.50 ▲ +0.20
2 7.50 ▲ +1.50

11 snapshots recorded, from .