Beşiktaş
vs
Marseille
4 – 1 Full time
| 10′ | Emmanuel Agbadou | ||
| 15′ | Ilhan Fakili | ||
| 29′ | Keyliane Abdallah | ||
| 45′ | Emmanuel AgbadouTiago Djaló | ||
| 56′ | Václav Černý | ||
| 58′ | Ulisses GarciaEmerson Palmieri | ||
| 58′ | Angel GomesIgor Paixão | ||
| 59′ | Amir Murillo | ||
| 67′ | Neal MaupayAmine Gouiri | ||
| 67′ | Derek CorneliusNayef Aguerd | ||
| 71′ | Václav ČernýErnest Poku | ||
| 71′ | Orkun KökçüWilfred Ndidi | ||
| 72′ | Amine Harit | ||
| 81′ | Ernest Poku | ||
| 82′ | Keyliane AbdallahTadjidine Mmadi | ||
| 82′ | Junior OlaitanOh Hyeon-gyu | ||
| 82′ | Ilhan FakiliFabio Miretti | ||
| 90′ | Fabio Miretti |
Match stats
| 18 | Shots | 14 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 54 | Possession % | 46 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 493 | Accurate passes | 395 |
Beşiktaş vs Marseille overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Beşiktaş vs Marseille
| Probability | Beşiktaş | Draw | Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 71.4% | 17.6% | 11.0% |
| Market | 53.8% | 23.2% | 23.0% |
| Final | 58.2% | 21.8% | 20.0% |
| Edge | +17.5% | -5.6% | -11.9% |
Why Beşiktaş
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.55 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Beşiktaş below the model: +17.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Beşiktaş and Marseille expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.49
Beşiktaş and Marseille attack and defence ratings
Beşiktaş
Marseille
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Beşiktaş vs Marseille: result vs prediction
Beşiktaş 4 – 1 Marseille
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other League Stage - 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Beşiktaş vs Marseille markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beşiktaş | 58.2% | 1.72 | +17.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.0% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Beşiktaş win | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Beşiktaş | 58.2% |
| Draw | 21.8% | |
| Marseille | 20.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.0% |
| No | 43.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Beşiktaş win | 50.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.9% | |
| Loss | 28.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 9.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 3-0 | 8.4% |
Beşiktaş vs Marseille stats
Beşiktaş and Marseille recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Beşiktaş and Marseille going into this match
Beşiktaş record
- They have won 5 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 6 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Beşiktaş vs Marseille head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Beşiktaş vs Marseille odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 53.8%, draw 23.2%, away 23.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.80 | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 4.10 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 4.15 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.82 | 4.15 | 4.15 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 4.16 | 4.19 |
| SBO | 1.77 | 3.79 | 3.89 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.80 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .