Chelsea vs Luton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chelsea vs Luton
| Probability | Chelsea | Draw | Luton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.7% | 18.8% | 64.4% |
| Market | 83.1% | 11.2% | 5.6% |
| Final | 66.5% | 13.1% | 20.3% |
| Edge | -66.4% | +7.6% | +58.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chelsea and Luton expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.89
Chelsea and Luton attack and defence ratings
Chelsea
Luton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Chelsea vs Luton: result vs prediction
Chelsea 2 – 0 Luton
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Round of 64 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chelsea vs Luton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chelsea | 66.5% | 1.50 | -66.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.9% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 86.9% | 1.15 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 83.3% | 1.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chelsea | 66.5% |
| Draw | 13.1% | |
| Luton | 20.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.9% |
| No | 32.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 86.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 33.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chelsea win | 6.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 9.8% | |
| Loss | 83.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 8.9% |
| 1-3 | 7.7% | |
| 1-1 | 7.6% |
Chelsea vs Luton stats
Chelsea vs Luton head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-30 | Luton | Chelsea | Premier League | 2-3 |
| 2023-08-25 | Chelsea | Luton | Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2022-03-02 | Luton | Chelsea | FA Cup | 2-3 |
| 2021-01-24 | Chelsea | Luton | FA Cup | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Chelsea vs Luton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 83.1%, draw 11.2%, away 5.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.15 | 7.10 | 17.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.16 | 8.70 | 17.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.17 | 7.50 | 15.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.13 | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| Betano | 1.19 | 7.80 | 18.00 |
| Betfair | 1.12 | 8.50 | 16.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.16 | 8.60 | 16.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.16 | 8.50 | 17.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.14 | 8.81 | 17.00 |
| SBO | 1.12 | 7.62 | 13.48 |
| Superbet | 1.15 | 7.70 | 13.00 |
| Unibet | 1.11 | 9.00 | 18.00 |
| William Hill | 1.15 | 7.50 | 15.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .