Mansfield Town
vs
Luton
5 – 2 Full time
Mansfield Town vs Luton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mansfield Town vs Luton
| Probability | Mansfield Town | Draw | Luton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34.2% | 22.5% | 43.3% |
| Market | 32.3% | 26.1% | 41.5% |
| Final | 32.8% | 25.2% | 42.0% |
| Edge | +1.9% | -3.7% | +1.8% |
Why Luton
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mansfield Town and Luton expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.69
Mansfield Town and Luton attack and defence ratings
Mansfield Town
Luton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Mansfield Town vs Luton: result vs prediction
Mansfield Town 5 – 2 Luton
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mansfield Town vs Luton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Luton | 42.0% | 2.38 | +1.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.9% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mansfield Town | 32.8% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Luton | 42.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 73.9% |
| No | 26.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Luton win | 20.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.4% | |
| Loss | 62.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 8.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
Mansfield Town vs Luton stats
Mansfield Town and Luton recent form
| Mansfield Town |
LWLWDW |
| Luton |
LDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mansfield Town and Luton going into this match
Mansfield Town record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 70% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Luton record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
Mansfield Town vs Luton head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | Mansfield Town | Luton | League One | 2-2 |
| 2025-10-18 | Luton | Mansfield Town | League One | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mansfield Town vs Luton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.3%, draw 26.1%, away 41.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.92 | 3.55 | 2.25 |
| 1xBet | 2.89 | 3.64 | 2.27 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 2.95 | 3.45 | 2.27 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.65 | 2.26 |
| Marathonbet | 2.89 | 3.64 | 2.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.93 | 3.61 | 2.29 |
| SBO | 2.61 | 3.13 | 2.13 |
| Unibet | 2.88 | 3.65 | 2.25 |
| William Hill | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .