Notts County
vs
Burton Albion
2 – 1 Full time
Notts County vs Burton Albion overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Notts County vs Burton Albion
| Probability | Notts County | Draw | Burton Albion |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.2% | 30.6% | 25.2% |
| Market | 40.9% | 28.1% | 31.0% |
| Final | 41.7% | 28.8% | 29.5% |
| Edge | +3.3% | +2.5% | -5.8% |
Why Notts County
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.32 vs 0.93.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Notts County below the model: +3.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Notts County and Burton Albion expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.25
Notts County and Burton Albion attack and defence ratings
Notts County
Burton Albion
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Notts County vs Burton Albion: result vs prediction
Notts County 2 – 1 Burton Albion
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Leicester
- Blackpool v Peterborough — match page
- Sheffield Wednesday vs Bromley — team news & stats
- Plymouth vs Bradford
- Stevenage v Doncaster — match page
- Cambridge United vs Huddersfield — team news & stats
- Leyton Orient vs Barnsley
- Stockport County vs Wycombe — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Notts County vs Burton Albion markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Notts County | 41.7% | 2.40 | +3.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.9% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Notts County | 41.7% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Burton Albion | 29.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.7% |
| No | 54.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 58.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Notts County win | 21.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 55.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 1-0 | 12.6% | |
| 0-0 | 11.8% |
Notts County vs Burton Albion stats
Notts County and Burton Albion recent form
| Notts County |
DDDWDW |
| Burton Albion |
WDLDDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Notts County and Burton Albion going into this match
Notts County record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Burton Albion record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
Notts County vs Burton Albion head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-24 | Burton Albion | Notts County | EFL Trophy | 1-2 |
| 2013-09-03 | Notts County | Burton Albion | EFL Trophy | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Notts County vs Burton Albion odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.9%, draw 28.1%, away 31.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.26 | 3.35 | 3.00 |
| 1xBet | 2.29 | 3.25 | 3.09 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.30 | 3.05 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.37 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.27 | 3.25 | 3.08 |
| Pinnacle | 2.30 | 3.35 | 3.10 |
| SBO | 2.20 | 2.95 | 2.65 |
| Superbet | 2.35 | 3.30 | 2.95 |
| Unibet | 2.23 | 3.35 | 3.15 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .