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League One · Full time ·Matchday 3

Leyton Orient vs Barnsley

1 – 3 Full time

Matchroom Stadium, LondonReferee: S. Jackson

Leyton Orient 43%
Draw 28%
Barnsley 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Leyton Orient vs Barnsley overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Leyton Orient vs Barnsley

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLeyton OrientDrawBarnsley
Model46.3%32.9%20.8%
Market42.0%26.5%31.5%
Final43.0%28.1%28.8%
Edge+4.3%+6.5%-10.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Leyton Orient

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.20 vs 0.71.
  • The market prices Leyton Orient below the model: +4.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Leyton Orient ↓ / Barnsley → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 16% 9% 1 16% 14% 2 11% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 84%
2+ goals 58%
3+ goals 30%
No goals 16%

Leyton Orient and Barnsley expected goals

Leyton Orient 1.20
Barnsley 0.71

Total expected goals: 1.91

Leyton Orient and Barnsley attack and defence ratings

Leyton Orient

Attack 0.84 -16%
Defence 0.75 -25%

Barnsley

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Leyton Orient vs Barnsley: result vs prediction

Leyton Orient 1 – 3 Barnsley

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

League One

Before and after this match

Leyton Orient vs Barnsley markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Leyton Orient 43.0% 2.32 +4.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 70.1% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score No 63.2% 1.58 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.9% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 53.6% 1.87 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Leyton Orient43.0%
Draw28.1%
Barnsley28.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.529.9%
Under 2.570.1%
Both teams to scoreYes36.8%
No63.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.2%
12 (either side)71.9%
X2 (draw or away)57.0%
Handicap -1Leyton Orient win21.2%
Push (exactly one goal)25.2%
Loss53.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-016.5%
0-016.1%
1-113.9%

Leyton Orient vs Barnsley stats

Leyton Orient and Barnsley recent form

newest first
Leyton Orient DWLWDL
Barnsley WDLDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Leyton Orient and Barnsley going into this match

league record before kick-off

Leyton Orient record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.

Barnsley record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Leyton Orient vs Barnsley head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

2Leyton Orient wins 2Draws 4Barnsley wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-28Leyton OrientBarnsleyLeague One1-3
2025-12-13BarnsleyLeyton OrientLeague One3-2
2025-04-18Leyton OrientBarnsleyLeague One4-3
2024-12-21BarnsleyLeyton OrientLeague One0-4
2024-02-10BarnsleyLeyton OrientLeague One2-1
2023-10-21Leyton OrientBarnsleyLeague One1-1
2015-03-17Leyton OrientBarnsleyLeague One0-0
2014-12-20BarnsleyLeyton OrientLeague One2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Leyton Orient vs Barnsley odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.0%, draw 26.5%, away 31.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.25 3.50 2.94
1xBet 2.22 3.62 2.94
Bet365 2.20 3.50 3.00
BetVictor 2.20 3.40 2.88
Betano 2.25 3.50 2.95
Betfair 2.20 3.60 3.00
Dafabet 2.26 3.60 3.05
Marathonbet 2.20 3.62 2.93
Pinnacle 2.21 3.77 2.96
SBO 2.14 3.04 2.67
Superbet 2.22 3.50 3.00
Unibet 2.28 3.55 2.90
William Hill 2.20 3.30 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.21 ▲ +0.01
X 3.50 —
2 2.94 ▼ -0.01

11 snapshots recorded, from .