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League One · Full time ·Matchday 4

Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon

4 – 1 Full time

18′J. Stockley
28′G. Evans
34′A. Smith
46′C. Webster
61′Z. NelsonC. Maycock
61′D. SweeneyS. Sessegnon
61′D. McNeillyA. Sasu
65′G. EvansJ. Lewis
65′W. CollarK. Adom
72′Andy Yiadom
76′C. Vickers
81′C. VickersE. Adiele
83′Jack Armer
90′J. ArmerH. Araujo
90′K. LofthouseZ. Scutt

Pirelli Stadium, Burton upon TrentReferee: D. Brown

Burton Albion 49%
Draw 28%
AFC Wimbledon 23%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 19
5 Shots on target 4
50 Possession % 50
4 Corners 7
8 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 3
2 Saves 2
335 Accurate passes 330

Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBurton AlbionDrawAFC Wimbledon
Model64.2%25.4%10.4%
Market43.9%28.9%27.2%
Final49.0%28.0%23.0%
Edge+20.4%-3.5%-16.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Burton Albion

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.53.
  • The market prices Burton Albion below the model: +20.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Burton Albion ↓ / AFC Wimbledon → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 12% 1 18% 11% 2 15% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 88%
2+ goals 65%
3+ goals 37%
No goals 12%

Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon expected goals

Burton Albion 1.66
AFC Wimbledon 0.53

Total expected goals: 2.19

Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon attack and defence ratings

Burton Albion

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 0.92 -8%

AFC Wimbledon

Attack 0.49 -51%
Defence 1.25 +25%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon: result vs prediction

Burton Albion 4 – 1 AFC Wimbledon

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

League One

Before and after this match

Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Burton Albion 49.0% 2.04 +20.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 62.6% 1.60 — —
Both teams to score No 65.9% 1.52 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.0% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Burton Albion win 37.2% 2.69 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Burton Albion49.0%
Draw28.0%
AFC Wimbledon23.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.537.4%
Under 2.562.6%
Both teams to scoreYes34.1%
No65.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.0%
12 (either side)72.0%
X2 (draw or away)51.0%
Handicap -1Burton Albion win37.2%
Push (exactly one goal)27.1%
Loss35.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-017.7%
2-015.5%
0-012.2%

Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon stats

Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon recent form

newest first
Burton Albion LWDLDD
AFC Wimbledon WLDLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Burton Albion and AFC Wimbledon going into this match

league record before kick-off

Burton Albion record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.

AFC Wimbledon record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.

Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Burton Albion wins 4Draws 0AFC Wimbledon wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-11Burton AlbionAFC WimbledonLeague One1-0
2025-10-25AFC WimbledonBurton AlbionLeague One0-1
2022-01-22Burton AlbionAFC WimbledonLeague One1-1
2021-10-02AFC WimbledonBurton AlbionLeague One1-1
2021-03-09AFC WimbledonBurton AlbionLeague One0-1
2020-10-24Burton AlbionAFC WimbledonLeague One1-1
2020-01-28AFC WimbledonBurton AlbionLeague One2-2
2019-10-22Burton AlbionAFC WimbledonLeague One1-0
2019-02-09AFC WimbledonBurton AlbionLeague One0-2
2018-09-01Burton AlbionAFC WimbledonLeague One3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Burton Albion vs AFC Wimbledon odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.9%, draw 28.9%, away 27.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.14 3.30 3.35
1xBet 2.15 3.22 3.42
Bet365 2.10 3.20 3.70
BetVictor 2.15 3.25 3.40
Betano 2.15 3.20 3.45
Betfair 2.05 3.30 3.70
Dafabet 2.06 3.35 3.80
Marathonbet 2.13 3.22 3.42
Pinnacle 2.20 3.31 3.53
SBO 2.02 3.04 3.28
Superbet 2.12 3.20 3.50
Unibet 2.08 3.45 3.40
William Hill 2.10 3.20 3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.12 ▲ +0.12
X 3.22 ▼ -0.14
2 3.42 ▼ -0.18

7 snapshots recorded, from .