AFC Wimbledon
vs
Wigan
1 – 0 Full time
AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan
| Probability | AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Wigan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.3% | 32.6% | 46.1% |
| Market | 30.9% | 28.8% | 40.3% |
| Final | 28.5% | 29.8% | 41.7% |
| Edge | -9.6% | +3.8% | +5.8% |
Why Wigan
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.29 vs 0.62.
- The market prices Wigan below the model: +5.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AFC Wimbledon and Wigan expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.91
AFC Wimbledon and Wigan attack and defence ratings
AFC Wimbledon
Wigan
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan: result vs prediction
AFC Wimbledon 1 – 0 Wigan
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Wigan | 41.7% | 2.40 | +5.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 71.5% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.3% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AFC Wimbledon | 28.5% |
| Draw | 29.8% | |
| Wigan | 41.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.0% |
| No | 62.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Wigan win | 25.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.6% | |
| Loss | 48.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.9% |
| 0-0 | 15.4% | |
| 1-1 | 14.0% |
AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan stats
AFC Wimbledon and Wigan recent form
| AFC Wimbledon |
LDLDLW |
| Wigan |
LLDLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AFC Wimbledon and Wigan going into this match
AFC Wimbledon record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
Wigan record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Wigan | AFC Wimbledon | League One | 0-1 |
| 2025-11-22 | AFC Wimbledon | Wigan | League One | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.9%, draw 28.8%, away 40.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.28 |
| 1xBet | 3.06 | 3.22 | 2.33 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.10 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.13 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.87 | 3.15 | 2.47 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.25 | 2.42 |
| Marathonbet | 3.05 | 3.22 | 2.31 |
| Pinnacle | 3.12 | 3.26 | 2.33 |
| SBO | 2.59 | 2.92 | 2.26 |
| Unibet | 3.05 | 3.30 | 2.33 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.10 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .