League One
·
Full time
·Matchday 2
Luton
vs
Notts County
2 – 2 Full time
Luton
54%
Draw
24%
Notts County
22%
Luton vs Notts County overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Luton vs Notts County
| Probability | Luton | Draw | Notts County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.4% | 24.0% | 21.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 54.4% | 24.0% | 21.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Luton
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
95%
2+ goals
83%
3+ goals
60%
No goals
5%
Luton and Notts County expected goals
Luton
1.94
Notts County
1.17
Total expected goals: 3.11
Luton and Notts County attack and defence ratings
Luton
Attack
1.65 +65%
Defence
0.98 -2%
Notts County
Attack
1.03 +3%
Defence
0.80 -20%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Luton vs Notts County: result vs prediction
Luton 2 – 2 Notts County
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Luton vs Notts County markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Luton | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.6% | 2.19 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Luton | 54.4% |
| Draw | 24.0% | |
| Notts County | 21.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% |
| No | 40.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Luton win | 32.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.0% | |
| Loss | 45.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.4% |
Luton vs Notts County stats
Luton and Notts County recent form
| Luton |
WWWWWD |
| Notts County |
DDWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Luton and Notts County going into this match
Luton record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
Notts County record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.