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League One · Full time ·Matchday 4

Luton vs Stockport County

2 – 0 Full time

45′Benedict BenagrIsaiah Jones
50′Nahki Wells
56′Dan Gore
64′Josh CogleyRyan Glover
65′Adetayo EdunBen Osborn
65′Nahki WellsCallum Marshall
65′Dan GoreJake Richards
68′Oliver Norwood
74′Lewis BateMikael Mandron
75′Harry WoodBenoný Breki Andrésson
75′Kasey PalmerGideon kadua
76′Callum Marshall
77′Jack DiamondJason Adigun

Kenilworth Road, LutonReferee: C. Hicks

Luton 38%
Draw 25%
Stockport County 37%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 10
5 Shots on target 2
38 Possession % 62
2 Corners 8
7 Fouls 13
3 Offsides 6
2 Saves 3
292 Accurate passes 535

Luton vs Stockport County overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Luton vs Stockport County

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLutonDrawStockport County
Model38.4%20.8%40.8%
Market38.1%26.3%35.6%
Final38.2%24.9%36.9%
Edge+0.3%-5.5%+5.2%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Luton ↓ / Stockport Coun → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 7% 5% 5% 2 6% 7% 5% 5% 3 5% 5% 4% 4% 4+ 4% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 94%
3+ goals 82%
No goals 2%

Luton and Stockport County expected goals

Luton 2.18
Stockport County 2.25

Total expected goals: 4.43

Luton and Stockport County attack and defence ratings

Luton

Attack 1.47 +47%
Defence 1.31 +31%

Stockport County

Attack 1.47 +47%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Luton vs Stockport County: result vs prediction

Luton 2 – 0 Stockport County

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

League One

Before and after this match

Luton vs Stockport County markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Luton 38.2% 2.62 +0.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81.8% 1.22 — —
Both teams to score Yes 79.9% 1.25 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.1% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 61.6% 1.62 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Luton38.2%
Draw24.9%
Stockport County36.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.581.8%
Under 2.518.2%
Both teams to scoreYes79.9%
No20.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)63.1%
12 (either side)75.1%
X2 (draw or away)61.8%
Handicap -1Luton win22.1%
Push (exactly one goal)16.4%
Loss61.6%
Correct score (top 3)2-27.2%
1-26.6%
1-16.4%

Luton vs Stockport County stats

Luton and Stockport County recent form

newest first
Luton LLDWWW
Stockport County WLWDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Luton and Stockport County going into this match

league record before kick-off

Luton record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.

Stockport County record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.6 goals per match.

Luton vs Stockport County head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

5Luton wins 2Draws 0Stockport County wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-12LutonStockport CountyEFL Trophy3-1
2026-03-21LutonStockport CountyLeague One1-1
2025-11-08Stockport CountyLutonLeague One0-3
2013-03-19LutonStockport CountyNational League1-0
2013-03-02Stockport CountyLutonNational League0-1
2012-01-10LutonStockport CountyNational League1-0
2011-09-02Stockport CountyLutonNational League1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Luton vs Stockport County odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.1%, draw 26.3%, away 35.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.48 3.55 2.60
1xBet 2.38 3.60 2.68
Bet365 2.45 3.50 2.60
BetVictor 2.40 3.70 2.63
Betano 2.52 3.50 2.57
Betfair 2.50 3.50 2.63
Dafabet 2.23 3.55 3.15
Marathonbet 2.52 3.60 2.52
Pinnacle 2.63 3.67 2.59
SBO 2.08 3.34 2.86
Superbet 2.50 3.55 2.60
Unibet 2.40 3.50 2.75
William Hill 2.40 3.50 2.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.45 ▲ +0.33
X 3.55 —
2 2.62 ▼ -0.48

7 snapshots recorded, from .