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League One · Full time ·Matchday 5

Luton vs Leyton Orient

1 – 1 Full time

21′Harrison AshbyHarry Fox
25′Jamie Donley
34′Jaze Kabia
42′Jaze Kabia
53′Joseph Olowu
57′George Johnston
57′Yusuf Akhamrich
61′Nahki WellsCallum Marshall
61′Liam WalshDan Gore
61′Jamie DonleyKasey Palmer
73′Isaac Hayden
76′Jaze KabiaNicholas Oyekunle
76′Isaac HaydenSean Clare
82′Demetri MitchellTony Springett
83′Yusuf AkhamrichArmando Dobra
83′Phillip ChineduTheodore Archibald
83′Gideon kaduaTudor Mendel-Idowu
86′Dan Gore

Kenilworth Road, LutonReferee: O. Yates

Luton 53%
Draw 24%
Leyton Orient 23%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

25 Shots 7
8 Shots on target 3
53 Possession % 47
7 Corners 2
9 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 0
2 Saves 6
394 Accurate passes 315

Luton vs Leyton Orient overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Luton vs Leyton Orient

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLutonDrawLeyton Orient
Model43.7%25.2%31.1%
Market55.8%23.4%20.7%
Final52.8%23.9%23.3%
Edge-12.2%+1.8%+10.4%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Luton ↓ / Leyton Orient → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 11% 8% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 84%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 5%

Luton and Leyton Orient expected goals

Luton 1.74
Leyton Orient 1.46

Total expected goals: 3.20

Luton and Leyton Orient attack and defence ratings

Luton

Attack 1.46 +46%
Defence 1.19 +19%

Leyton Orient

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Luton vs Leyton Orient: result vs prediction

Luton 1 – 1 Leyton Orient

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

League One

Before and after this match

Luton vs Leyton Orient markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Luton 52.8% 1.89 -12.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 62.1% 1.61 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.4% 1.55 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 76.7% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.6% 1.77 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Luton52.8%
Draw23.9%
Leyton Orient23.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.562.1%
Under 2.537.9%
Both teams to scoreYes64.4%
No35.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.7%
12 (either side)76.1%
X2 (draw or away)47.2%
Handicap -1Luton win23.6%
Push (exactly one goal)19.8%
Loss56.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.4%
2-19.0%
1-27.5%

Luton vs Leyton Orient stats

Luton and Leyton Orient recent form

newest first
Luton WLLDWW
Leyton Orient WLDWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Luton and Leyton Orient going into this match

league record before kick-off

Luton record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.

Leyton Orient record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.

Luton vs Leyton Orient head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

4Luton wins 3Draws 0Leyton Orient wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-12-29LutonLeyton OrientLeague One3-0
2025-12-09Leyton OrientLutonLeague One1-1
2017-04-14LutonLeyton OrientLeague Two2-2
2016-10-15Leyton OrientLutonLeague Two1-2
2016-03-05Leyton OrientLutonLeague Two0-1
2015-10-20LutonLeyton OrientLeague Two1-1
2015-09-01LutonLeyton OrientEFL Trophy2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Luton vs Leyton Orient odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 55.9%, draw 23.3%, away 20.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.66 3.95 4.65
1xBet 1.69 3.96 4.50
Bet365 1.67 4.00 4.50
BetVictor 1.67 4.10 4.50
Betano 1.67 3.95 4.50
Betfair 1.65 4.10 4.75
Dafabet 1.69 4.10 4.70
Marathonbet 1.67 3.96 4.55
Pinnacle 1.69 4.15 4.75
SBO 1.60 3.52 3.90
Superbet 1.68 4.00 4.50
Unibet 1.62 4.00 5.00
William Hill 1.67 3.80 4.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.67 ▲ +0.04
X 3.98 —
2 4.50 ▼ -0.38

7 snapshots recorded, from .