Stevenage
vs
Luton
2 – 1 Full time
| 4′ | Daniel Phillips | ||
| 23′ | Daniel Kemp | ||
| 24′ | Jack Wilshere | ||
| 26′ | Lewis Freestone | ||
| 30′ | Liam Walsh | ||
| 44′ | Daniel Kemp | ||
| 56′ | Jordan RobertsBen Broggio | ||
| 58′ | Gideon kaduaKasey Palmer | ||
| 58′ | Jamie DonleyJake Richards | ||
| 66′ | Callum MarshallNahki Wells | ||
| 70′ | Josh Magennis | ||
| 75′ | Mads Juel Andersen | ||
| 76′ | O. SandersonSaxon Earley | ||
| 76′ | Josh MagennisMichael Mellon | ||
| 76′ | Daniel KempJordan Houghton | ||
| 80′ | Saxon Earley | ||
| 84′ | Hakeem OdofinTudor Mendel-Idowu | ||
| 85′ | Daniel PhillipsMatthew Smith | ||
| 90′ | Luther Wildin | ||
| 90′ | Mads Juel Andersen |
Match stats
| 9 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 29 | Possession % | 71 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 1 | Saves | 1 |
| 177 | Accurate passes | 526 |
Stevenage vs Luton overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Stevenage vs Luton
| Probability | Stevenage | Draw | Luton |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.1% | 24.7% | 35.2% |
| Market | 29.1% | 27.0% | 43.9% |
| Final | 31.8% | 26.4% | 41.7% |
| Edge | +11.1% | -2.3% | -8.8% |
Why Luton
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Stevenage and Luton expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.36
Stevenage and Luton attack and defence ratings
Stevenage
Luton
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Stevenage vs Luton: result vs prediction
Stevenage 2 – 1 Luton
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
- Leyton Orient v Wycombe — match page
- Notts County vs Bradford — team news & stats
- Sheffield Wednesday vs Wigan
- AFC Wimbledon v Doncaster — match page
- Oxford United vs Burton Albion — team news & stats
- Milton Keynes Dons vs Peterborough
- Blackpool v Bromley — match page
- Plymouth vs Barnsley — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Stevenage vs Luton markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Luton | 41.7% | 2.40 | -8.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.2% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Stevenage | 31.8% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Luton | 41.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.1% |
| No | 32.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Luton win | 17.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.3% | |
| Loss | 64.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | |
| 1-2 | 7.9% |
Stevenage vs Luton stats
Stevenage and Luton recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Stevenage and Luton going into this match
Stevenage record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Luton record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
Stevenage vs Luton head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Luton | Stevenage | League One | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Stevenage | Luton | League One | 2-0 |
| 2021-08-10 | Stevenage | Luton | League Cup | 2-2 |
| 2018-02-10 | Stevenage | Luton | League Two | 1-1 |
| 2017-10-14 | Luton | Stevenage | League Two | 7-1 |
| 2017-03-11 | Luton | Stevenage | League Two | 0-2 |
| 2016-08-20 | Stevenage | Luton | League Two | 2-1 |
| 2016-04-02 | Luton | Stevenage | League Two | 0-1 |
| 2015-11-21 | Stevenage | Luton | League Two | 0-0 |
| 2015-05-02 | Luton | Stevenage | League Two | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Stevenage vs Luton odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.0%, draw 27.3%, away 42.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| 1xBet | 3.22 | 3.48 | 2.13 |
| 888Sport | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 3.10 | 3.45 | 2.29 |
| Marathonbet | 3.22 | 3.48 | 2.11 |
| Pinnacle | 3.35 | 3.61 | 2.16 |
| SBO | 2.85 | 3.06 | 2.11 |
| Superbet | 3.05 | 3.35 | 2.27 |
| Unibet | 2.85 | 3.35 | 2.40 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .