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League One · Full time ·Matchday 6

Milton Keynes Dons vs Peterborough

1 – 1 Full time

29′Aaron Collins
51′Harrison JonesHarry Ashfield
51′Evan WeirHarley Mills
51′B. WoodsBrandon·Singh Khela
57′Bolu ShofowokeD. Ormerod
60′Gethin JonesMarvin Ekpiteta
73′Dan CrowleyJay Matete
74′Aaron CollinsRushian Hepburn-Murphy
78′Liam KellyChris Conn-Clarke
80′Cohen Bramall
85′Chris Conn-Clarke
86′Alex Gilbey

Stadium MK, Milton KeynesReferee: S. Oldham

Milton Keynes Dons 49%
Draw 25%
Peterborough 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 17
2 Shots on target 3
35 Possession % 65
6 Corners 9
11 Fouls 7
4 Offsides 1
2 Saves 1
188 Accurate passes 425

Milton Keynes Dons vs Peterborough overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Milton Keynes Dons vs Peterborough

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMilton Keynes DonsDrawPeterborough
Model52.3%24.7%23.0%
Market47.7%24.9%27.4%
Final48.9%24.8%26.3%
Edge+4.6%-0.2%-4.4%

Confidence: Low

Why Milton Keynes Dons

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.87 vs 1.19.
  • The market prices Milton Keynes Dons below the model: +4.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Milton Keynes ↓ / Peterborough → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 8% 11% 6% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 59%
No goals 6%

Milton Keynes Dons and Peterborough expected goals

Milton Keynes Dons 1.87
Peterborough 1.19

Total expected goals: 3.06

Milton Keynes Dons and Peterborough attack and defence ratings

Milton Keynes Dons

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 1.16 +16%

Peterborough

Attack 0.87 -13%
Defence 1.18 +18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Peterborough: result vs prediction

Milton Keynes Dons 1 – 1 Peterborough

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

League One

Before and after this match

Milton Keynes Dons vs Peterborough markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Milton Keynes Dons 48.9% 2.05 +4.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 58.9% 1.70 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.8% 1.67 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.2% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.8% 2.09 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Milton Keynes Dons48.9%
Draw24.8%
Peterborough26.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558.9%
Under 2.541.1%
Both teams to scoreYes59.8%
No40.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.7%
12 (either side)75.2%
X2 (draw or away)51.1%
Handicap -1Milton Keynes Dons win30.3%
Push (exactly one goal)21.9%
Loss47.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.5%
2-19.8%
2-08.2%

Milton Keynes Dons vs Peterborough stats

Milton Keynes Dons and Peterborough recent form

newest first
Milton Keynes Dons DLDDDL
Peterborough LDLWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Milton Keynes Dons and Peterborough going into this match

league record before kick-off

Milton Keynes Dons record

  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.

Peterborough record

  • They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Peterborough head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

2Milton Keynes Dons wins 2Draws 5Peterborough wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2022-12-29PeterboroughMilton Keynes DonsLeague One2-0
2022-10-01Milton Keynes DonsPeterboroughLeague One2-3
2021-01-16PeterboroughMilton Keynes DonsLeague One3-0
2020-12-15Milton Keynes DonsPeterboroughLeague One1-1
2019-08-24Milton Keynes DonsPeterboroughLeague One0-4
2018-09-04Milton Keynes DonsPeterboroughEFL Trophy3-3
2017-12-30Milton Keynes DonsPeterboroughLeague One1-0
2017-09-12PeterboroughMilton Keynes DonsLeague One2-0
2017-01-28PeterboroughMilton Keynes DonsLeague One0-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Milton Keynes Dons vs Peterborough odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.7%, draw 24.9%, away 27.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.97 3.80 3.35
1xBet 1.95 3.74 3.48
888Sport 1.95 3.50 3.40
Bet365 1.95 3.75 3.40
BetVictor 1.95 3.90 3.40
Betano 1.98 3.70 3.40
Betfair 1.95 3.80 3.50
Dafabet 2.05 3.75 3.40
Marathonbet 1.93 3.74 3.48
Pinnacle 1.96 4.00 3.57
SBO 1.95 3.30 3.01
Superbet 2.02 3.60 3.35
Unibet 1.98 3.70 3.35
William Hill 1.95 3.60 3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.95 ▲ +0.01
X 3.74 ▲ +0.06
2 3.40 ▼ -0.18

13 snapshots recorded, from .