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League One · Full time ·Matchday 6

AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster

1 – 0 Full time

6′Matthew PearsonSean Grehan
27′Jayden Stockley
31′Leon Ayinde
43′Myles Hippolyte
58′George BroadbentIsaac Hutchinson
64′Ollie HarrisonZack Nelson
64′Aron SasuDonnell McNeilly
65′Leon AyindeJordan Thomas
65′James HusbandBayley McCann
70′Freddie SimmondsAndy Yiadom
76′Owen Bailey
84′Myles Hippolyte
90′Tommy Simkim

Plough Lane, WimbledonReferee: E. Swallow

AFC Wimbledon 34%
Draw 29%
Doncaster 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 22
3 Shots on target 9
40 Possession % 60
6 Corners 6
15 Fouls 6
5 Offsides 1
9 Saves 3
205 Accurate passes 373

AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster overview

Garuda Lions analysis: AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAFC WimbledonDrawDoncaster
Model27.4%29.6%43.0%
Market35.6%28.3%36.1%
Final33.5%28.6%37.9%
Edge-8.2%+1.3%+6.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Doncaster

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.38 vs 1.05.
  • The market prices Doncaster below the model: +6.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

AFC Wimbledon ↓ / Doncaster → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 11% 8% 1 8% 14% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 71%
3+ goals 44%
No goals 10%

AFC Wimbledon and Doncaster expected goals

AFC Wimbledon 1.05
Doncaster 1.38

Total expected goals: 2.42

AFC Wimbledon and Doncaster attack and defence ratings

AFC Wimbledon

Attack 0.61 -39%
Defence 1.23 +23%

Doncaster

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster: result vs prediction

AFC Wimbledon 1 – 0 Doncaster

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

League One

Before and after this match

AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Doncaster 37.9% 2.64 +6.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 56.4% 1.77 — —
Both teams to score No 50.2% 1.99 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.4% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.9% 1.76 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2AFC Wimbledon33.5%
Draw28.6%
Doncaster37.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543.6%
Under 2.556.4%
Both teams to scoreYes49.8%
No50.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.1%
12 (either side)71.4%
X2 (draw or away)66.5%
Handicap -1Doncaster win21.0%
Push (exactly one goal)22.1%
Loss56.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.1%
0-110.9%
0-010.1%

AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster stats

AFC Wimbledon and Doncaster recent form

newest first
AFC Wimbledon WLWLDL
Doncaster LDDLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

AFC Wimbledon and Doncaster going into this match

league record before kick-off

AFC Wimbledon record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.

Doncaster record

  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4AFC Wimbledon wins 3Draws 3Doncaster wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-01-17AFC WimbledonDoncasterLeague One0-1
2025-09-20DoncasterAFC WimbledonLeague One1-2
2025-04-12DoncasterAFC WimbledonLeague Two1-1
2024-12-14AFC WimbledonDoncasterLeague Two1-0
2024-02-24DoncasterAFC WimbledonLeague Two1-0
2023-11-11AFC WimbledonDoncasterLeague Two2-0
2023-03-11DoncasterAFC WimbledonLeague Two2-1
2022-08-13AFC WimbledonDoncasterLeague Two2-2
2022-02-26AFC WimbledonDoncasterLeague One2-2
2021-08-07DoncasterAFC WimbledonLeague One1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

AFC Wimbledon vs Doncaster odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.6%, draw 28.2%, away 36.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.60 3.35 2.60
1xBet 2.61 3.32 2.58
888Sport 2.50 3.30 2.50
Bet365 2.62 3.25 2.62
BetVictor 2.63 3.30 2.60
Betano 2.67 3.25 2.57
Betfair 2.63 3.50 2.55
Dafabet 2.70 3.40 2.60
Marathonbet 2.61 3.32 2.58
Pinnacle 2.65 3.54 2.64
SBO 2.44 3.01 2.45
Superbet 2.67 3.30 2.55
Unibet 2.43 3.30 2.88
William Hill 2.50 3.30 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.62 ▲ +0.02
X 3.30 ▲ +0.06
2 2.58 ▼ -0.03

13 snapshots recorded, from .