Barnsley
vs
Stevenage
1 – 5 Full time
| 16′ | Carl Piergianni | ||
| 17′ | C. McGeehan | ||
| 23′ | T. TaylorL. Thompson | ||
| 43′ | O. Sanderson | ||
| 46′ | Z. LarkecheA. Richards | ||
| 46′ | M. KirkL. Farrell | ||
| 52′ | D. Kemp | ||
| 57′ | T. Vancooten | ||
| 60′ | J. BlandL. Connell | ||
| 60′ | R. ClearyL. Alker | ||
| 66′ | D. Kemp | ||
| 72′ | O. SandersonB. Broggio | ||
| 72′ | J. MagennisM. Mellon | ||
| 75′ | C. McGeehanC. Taylor | ||
| 85′ | Patrick Kelly | ||
| 85′ | D. PhillipsJ. Houghton | ||
| 85′ | J. RobertsS. Earley | ||
| 86′ | Saxon Earley | ||
| 90′ | M. Mellon |
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 56 | Possession % | 44 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 18 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Offsides | 5 |
| 0 | Saves | 2 |
| 283 | Accurate passes | 186 |
Barnsley vs Stevenage overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Barnsley vs Stevenage
| Probability | Barnsley | Draw | Stevenage |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.7% | 27.6% | 17.7% |
| Market | 44.7% | 27.8% | 27.5% |
| Final | 47.2% | 27.8% | 25.1% |
| Edge | +10.1% | -0.3% | -9.8% |
Why Barnsley
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Barnsley below the model: +10.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Barnsley and Stevenage expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.38
Barnsley and Stevenage attack and defence ratings
Barnsley
Stevenage
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Barnsley vs Stevenage: result vs prediction
Barnsley 1 – 5 Stevenage
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
- Wigan vs Stockport County — team news & stats
- Peterborough vs Sheffield Wednesday
- Huddersfield v Notts County — match page
- Leicester vs Oxford United — team news & stats
- Reading vs Blackpool
- Burton Albion vs Cambridge United — team news & stats
- Bradford vs Mansfield Town
- Doncaster v Plymouth — match page
Before and after this match
Barnsley vs Stevenage markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnsley | 47.2% | 2.12 | +10.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.1% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.9% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.5% | 2.20 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barnsley | 47.2% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Stevenage | 25.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.9% |
| No | 55.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barnsley win | 29.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 45.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.5% |
| 1-1 | 12.9% | |
| 2-0 | 11.6% |
Barnsley vs Stevenage stats
Barnsley and Stevenage recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Barnsley and Stevenage going into this match
Barnsley record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- 58% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Stevenage record
- They have won 1 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
Barnsley vs Stevenage head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Stevenage | Barnsley | League One | 1-0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Barnsley | Stevenage | League One | 3-1 |
| 2025-01-25 | Barnsley | Stevenage | League One | 0-1 |
| 2024-09-14 | Stevenage | Barnsley | League One | 3-0 |
| 2024-04-09 | Stevenage | Barnsley | League One | 2-1 |
| 2023-12-23 | Barnsley | Stevenage | League One | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Barnsley vs Stevenage odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.4%, draw 28.2%, away 27.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| 1xBet | 2.10 | 3.36 | 3.40 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.45 |
| Marathonbet | 2.07 | 3.38 | 3.42 |
| Pinnacle | 2.13 | 3.47 | 3.55 |
| SBO | 1.96 | 3.02 | 3.04 |
| Superbet | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.35 |
| Unibet | 2.12 | 3.15 | 3.50 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .