Fulham
vs
Chelsea
2 – 3 Full time
Fulham vs Chelsea overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Fulham vs Chelsea
| Probability | Fulham | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.6% | 25.6% | 24.8% |
| Market | 23.7% | 24.6% | 51.7% |
| Final | 30.2% | 24.9% | 45.0% |
| Edge | +25.9% | +1.1% | -27.0% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Fulham and Chelsea expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.07
Fulham and Chelsea attack and defence ratings
Fulham
Chelsea
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Fulham vs Chelsea: result vs prediction
Fulham 2 – 3 Chelsea
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Fulham vs Chelsea markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chelsea | 45.0% | 2.22 | -27.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.7% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fulham | 30.2% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Chelsea | 45.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.7% |
| No | 37.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chelsea win | 11.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.8% | |
| Loss | 75.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 2-0 | 7.5% |
Fulham vs Chelsea stats
Fulham vs Chelsea head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-07 | Fulham | Chelsea | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Chelsea | Fulham | Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-20 | Fulham | Chelsea | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2024-12-26 | Chelsea | Fulham | Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2024-01-13 | Chelsea | Fulham | Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2023-10-02 | Fulham | Chelsea | Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2023-07-30 | Chelsea | Fulham | Premier League - Summer Series | 2-0 |
| 2023-02-03 | Chelsea | Fulham | Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2023-01-12 | Fulham | Chelsea | Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2021-05-01 | Chelsea | Fulham | Premier League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Fulham vs Chelsea odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.9%, draw 24.6%, away 51.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.88 | 3.25 | 2.40 |
| 1xBet | 4.21 | 3.98 | 1.90 |
| 888Sport | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 3.90 | 1.80 |
| BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.83 |
| Betano | 4.20 | 3.90 | 1.88 |
| Betfair | 4.10 | 3.90 | 1.85 |
| Dafabet | 3.85 | 3.90 | 1.91 |
| Marathonbet | 4.20 | 3.92 | 1.86 |
| Pinnacle | 4.24 | 3.93 | 1.85 |
| SBO | 3.74 | 3.52 | 1.82 |
| Superbet | 4.00 | 3.85 | 1.88 |
| Unibet | 4.10 | 3.65 | 1.88 |
| William Hill | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
| pinnacle | 4.00 | 4.01 | 1.86 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .