Athletic Club
vs
Atletico Madrid
3 – 0 Full time
| 39′ | Kang-in Lee | ||
| 46′ | Y. AlvarezA. Paredes | ||
| 46′ | N. Williams | ||
| 48′ | R. Navarro | ||
| 58′ | A. LookmanA. Ortiz | ||
| 59′ | G. SimeoneC. Romero | ||
| 59′ | M. HjulmandKoke | ||
| 59′ | Lee Kang-InJ. Alvarez | ||
| 60′ | I. Ruiz de GalarretaM. Jauregizar | ||
| 66′ | R. NavarroJ. Louis-Jean | ||
| 66′ | I. WilliamsA. Berenguer | ||
| 76′ | N. WilliamsG. Guruzeta | ||
| 76′ | A. BaenaJ. Cardoso | ||
| 90′ | O. Sancet |
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 38 | Possession % | 62 |
| 3 | Corners | 8 |
| 8 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Offsides | 2 |
| 5 | Saves | 1 |
| 316 | Accurate passes | 571 |
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid
| Probability | Athletic Club | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.4% | 24.7% | 22.9% |
| Market | 31.6% | 28.3% | 40.1% |
| Final | 36.8% | 27.4% | 35.8% |
| Edge | +20.8% | -3.6% | -17.2% |
Why Athletic Club
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.99 vs 1.36.
- The market prices Athletic Club below the model: +20.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Athletic Club and Atletico Madrid expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.35
Athletic Club and Atletico Madrid attack and defence ratings
Athletic Club
Atletico Madrid
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid: result vs prediction
Athletic Club 3 – 0 Atletico Madrid
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 36.8% | 2.72 | +20.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.9% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.9% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Club | 36.8% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Atletico Madrid | 35.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.9% |
| No | 33.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Athletic Club win | 32.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 47.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 6.9% |
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid stats
Athletic Club and Atletico Madrid recent form
| Athletic Club |
WLLLDL |
| Atletico Madrid |
WDWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Atletico Madrid | Athletic Club | La Liga | 3-2 |
| 2025-12-06 | Athletic Club | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-01 | Atletico Madrid | Athletic Club | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-31 | Athletic Club | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 0-1 |
| 2024-04-27 | Atletico Madrid | Athletic Club | La Liga | 3-1 |
| 2024-02-29 | Athletic Club | Atletico Madrid | Copa del Rey | 3-0 |
| 2024-02-07 | Atletico Madrid | Athletic Club | Copa del Rey | 0-1 |
| 2023-12-16 | Athletic Club | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 2-0 |
| 2023-02-19 | Atletico Madrid | Athletic Club | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2022-10-15 | Athletic Club | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.5%, draw 28.2%, away 40.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.00 | 3.35 | 2.28 |
| 1xBet | 3.15 | 3.50 | 2.43 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.30 | 2.35 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.38 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.35 | 2.32 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.36 |
| Marathonbet | 3.10 | 3.44 | 2.39 |
| Pinnacle | 3.07 | 3.39 | 2.42 |
| SBO | 2.67 | 3.10 | 2.31 |
| Superbet | 3.05 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Unibet | 3.05 | 3.45 | 2.28 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.25 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .