Sevilla
vs
Atletico Madrid
1 – 3 Full time
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid
| Probability | Sevilla | Draw | Atletico Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.3% | 28.5% | 26.1% |
| Market | 26.7% | 28.3% | 45.1% |
| Final | 31.3% | 28.3% | 40.3% |
| Edge | +18.7% | +0.3% | -19.0% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sevilla and Atletico Madrid expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.83
Sevilla and Atletico Madrid attack and defence ratings
Sevilla
Atletico Madrid
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid: result vs prediction
Sevilla 1 – 3 Atletico Madrid
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Racing Santander vs Elche — team news & stats
- Alaves vs Villarreal
- Levante v Real Betis — match page
- Real Sociedad vs Espanyol — team news & stats
- Real Madrid v Malaga — match page
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia — team news & stats
- Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club — team news & stats
- Osasuna v Getafe — match page
Before and after this match
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 40.3% | 2.48 | -19.0% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.1% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.7% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sevilla | 31.3% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Atletico Madrid | 40.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.1% |
| No | 39.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Madrid win | 11.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.3% | |
| Loss | 74.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 0-0 | 7.6% |
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid stats
Sevilla and Atletico Madrid recent form
| Sevilla |
WWLLWW |
| Atletico Madrid |
DWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Sevilla | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Atletico Madrid | Sevilla | La Liga | 3-0 |
| 2025-04-06 | Sevilla | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 1-2 |
| 2024-12-08 | Atletico Madrid | Sevilla | La Liga | 4-3 |
| 2024-02-11 | Sevilla | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2023-12-23 | Atletico Madrid | Sevilla | La Liga | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.7%, draw 28.3%, away 45.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.45 | 3.35 | 2.08 |
| 1xBet | 3.64 | 3.56 | 2.18 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| BetVictor | 3.30 | 3.30 | 2.05 |
| Betano | 3.60 | 3.35 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.55 | 3.40 | 2.16 |
| Marathonbet | 3.58 | 3.50 | 2.14 |
| Pinnacle | 3.68 | 3.46 | 2.11 |
| SBO | 3.07 | 3.07 | 2.08 |
| Superbet | 3.55 | 3.35 | 2.15 |
| Unibet | 3.50 | 3.45 | 2.07 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.10 |
| betclic_fr | 3.05 | 3.27 | 2.03 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .