Real Madrid
vs
Malaga
4 – 0 Full time
Real Madrid vs Malaga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Real Madrid vs Malaga
| Probability | Real Madrid | Draw | Malaga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.5% | 27.1% | 20.4% |
| Market | 83.8% | 11.2% | 5.0% |
| Final | 76.0% | 15.2% | 8.9% |
| Edge | -31.3% | +15.9% | +15.4% |
Why Real Madrid
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.09.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Real Madrid and Malaga expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.84
Real Madrid and Malaga attack and defence ratings
Real Madrid
Malaga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Real Madrid vs Malaga: result vs prediction
Real Madrid 4 – 0 Malaga
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Racing Santander vs Elche — team news & stats
- Alaves vs Villarreal
- Levante v Real Betis — match page
- Real Sociedad vs Espanyol — team news & stats
- Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia — team news & stats
- Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club — team news & stats
- Osasuna v Getafe — match page
Before and after this match
Real Madrid vs Malaga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 76.0% | 1.32 | -31.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.1% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.5% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 76.0% |
| Draw | 15.2% | |
| Malaga | 8.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.1% |
| No | 41.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 91.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 84.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 24.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win | 31.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 47.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 9.0% |
Real Madrid vs Malaga stats
Real Madrid and Malaga recent form
| Real Madrid |
WWWWWL |
| Malaga |
DLWDDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Real Madrid vs Malaga head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Real Madrid vs Malaga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 83.8%, draw 11.2%, away 5.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.14 | 8.00 | 15.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.15 | 9.80 | 21.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.12 | 8.50 | 21.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.09 | 8.00 | 18.00 |
| Betano | 1.14 | 8.00 | 19.50 |
| Betfair | 1.11 | 10.00 | 21.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.14 | 9.20 | 19.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.14 | 9.40 | 20.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.14 | 10.15 | 16.24 |
| SBO | 1.12 | 7.14 | 12.04 |
| Unibet | 1.13 | 8.50 | 19.00 |
| William Hill | 1.12 | 8.50 | 17.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .