Alaves
vs
Villarreal
1 – 0 Full time
Alaves vs Villarreal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alaves vs Villarreal
| Probability | Alaves | Draw | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.2% | 25.5% | 21.3% |
| Market | 30.7% | 27.2% | 42.1% |
| Final | 36.3% | 26.8% | 36.9% |
| Edge | +22.5% | -1.7% | -20.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alaves and Villarreal expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.13
Alaves and Villarreal attack and defence ratings
Alaves
Villarreal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Alaves vs Villarreal: result vs prediction
Alaves 1 – 0 Villarreal
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Racing Santander vs Elche — team news & stats
- Levante v Real Betis — match page
- Real Sociedad vs Espanyol — team news & stats
- Sevilla vs Atletico Madrid
- Real Madrid v Malaga — match page
- Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia — team news & stats
- Celta Vigo vs Athletic Club — team news & stats
- Osasuna v Getafe — match page
Before and after this match
Alaves vs Villarreal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Villarreal | 36.9% | 2.71 | -20.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 78.7% | 1.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alaves | 36.3% |
| Draw | 26.8% | |
| Villarreal | 36.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.2% |
| No | 36.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Villarreal win | 9.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 12.0% | |
| Loss | 78.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 7.9% |
Alaves vs Villarreal stats
Alaves and Villarreal recent form
| Alaves |
DWLWWD |
| Villarreal |
DDWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alaves vs Villarreal head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | Alaves | Villarreal | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Villarreal | Alaves | La Liga | 3-1 |
| 2025-03-08 | Alaves | Villarreal | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-09 | Villarreal | Alaves | La Liga | 3-0 |
| 2024-02-10 | Alaves | Villarreal | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-22 | Villarreal | Alaves | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2022-04-30 | Alaves | Villarreal | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2021-12-21 | Villarreal | Alaves | La Liga | 5-2 |
| 2021-04-21 | Alaves | Villarreal | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2020-09-30 | Villarreal | Alaves | La Liga | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alaves vs Villarreal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.7%, draw 27.2%, away 42.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.00 | 3.45 | 2.22 |
| 1xBet | 3.25 | 3.62 | 2.32 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.27 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.32 |
| Marathonbet | 3.20 | 3.56 | 2.28 |
| Pinnacle | 3.15 | 3.65 | 2.26 |
| SBO | 2.78 | 3.09 | 2.24 |
| Superbet | 3.05 | 3.55 | 2.32 |
| Unibet | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.18 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
| codere_it | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .