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La Liga · Full time ·Matchday 3

Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia

3 – 1 Full time

13′C. Tarrega
17′P. Aubameyang
26′U. Sadiq
59′M. Diakhaby
60′J. GuerraA. Danjuma
60′R. SatoH. Duro
60′L. RiojaD. Otorbi
64′R. RodriguezT. Gijselhart
65′Mouctar Diakhaby
66′PepeluA. Dieng
73′M. SorianoA. Altimira
73′Cruz LuismiY. Hernandez
82′A. MartinezD. Raba
83′X. NavarroM. Loureiro
83′B. NsongoJ. Asp
90′Adrià Altimira
90′Adrià Altimira
90′Adrià Altimira

Estadio Riazor, La CorunaReferee: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain

Deportivo La Coruna 41%
Draw 31%
Valencia 29%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 12
4 Shots on target 4
45 Possession % 55
5 Corners 5
14 Fouls 5
1 Offsides 3
3 Saves 3
379 Accurate passes 478

Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityDeportivo La CorunaDrawValencia
Model52.7%29.5%17.8%
Market36.5%31.1%32.4%
Final40.5%30.7%28.8%
Edge+16.2%-1.6%-14.6%

Confidence: Medium

Why Deportivo La Coruna

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 0.86.
  • The market prices Deportivo La Coruna below the model: +16.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Deportivo La C ↓ / Valencia → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 1 11% 14% 2 11% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 73%
3+ goals 45%
No goals 11%

Deportivo La Coruna and Valencia expected goals

Deportivo La Coruna 1.54
Valencia 0.86

Total expected goals: 2.41

Deportivo La Coruna and Valencia attack and defence ratings

Deportivo La Coruna

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 0.75 -25%

Valencia

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia: result vs prediction

Deportivo La Coruna 3 – 1 Valencia

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

La Liga

Before and after this match

Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Deportivo La Coruna 40.5% 2.47 +16.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 54.7% 1.83 — —
Both teams to score No 51.1% 1.96 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 71.2% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 47.2% 2.12 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Deportivo La Coruna40.5%
Draw30.7%
Valencia28.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545.3%
Under 2.554.7%
Both teams to scoreYes48.9%
No51.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.2%
12 (either side)69.3%
X2 (draw or away)59.5%
Handicap -1Deportivo La Coruna win29.7%
Push (exactly one goal)23.1%
Loss47.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.0%
1-011.1%
2-010.9%

Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia stats

Deportivo La Coruna and Valencia recent form

newest first
Deportivo La Coruna DDLWWW
Valencia LDWWDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Deportivo La Coruna vs Valencia odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.4%, draw 31.0%, away 32.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.58 3.00 2.88
1xBet 2.72 3.17 3.00
Bet365 2.60 3.10 2.90
BetVictor 2.50 3.00 2.75
Betano 2.60 3.05 2.95
Betfair 2.60 3.10 2.90
Dafabet 2.60 3.15 2.95
Marathonbet 2.68 3.12 2.96
Pinnacle 2.68 3.04 3.02
SBO 2.40 2.93 2.68
Unibet 2.55 3.00 3.05
William Hill 2.60 3.00 2.88
onexbet 2.73 3.30 2.89

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.60 ▼ -0.13
X 3.04 ▼ -0.10
2 2.92 ▲ +0.17

16 snapshots recorded, from .