Atletico Madrid
vs
Villarreal
2 – 2 Full time
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal
| Probability | Atletico Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.9% | 24.1% | 24.0% |
| Market | 52.0% | 24.8% | 23.2% |
| Final | 52.0% | 24.7% | 23.4% |
| Edge | -0.1% | -0.7% | +0.8% |
Why Atletico Madrid
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.05 vs 1.45.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atletico Madrid and Villarreal expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.49
Atletico Madrid and Villarreal attack and defence ratings
Atletico Madrid
Villarreal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal: result vs prediction
Atletico Madrid 2 – 2 Villarreal
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 52.0% | 1.92 | -0.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.1% | 2.08 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Madrid | 52.0% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Villarreal | 23.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.3% |
| No | 30.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Madrid win | 32.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.5% | |
| Loss | 48.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | |
| 2-2 | 6.6% |
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal stats
Atletico Madrid and Villarreal recent form
| Atletico Madrid |
WLWWLL |
| Villarreal |
DWLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Villarreal | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 5-1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Atletico Madrid | Villarreal | La Liga | 2-0 |
| 2025-01-25 | Atletico Madrid | Villarreal | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2024-08-19 | Villarreal | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 2-2 |
| 2024-04-01 | Villarreal | Atletico Madrid | La Liga | 1-2 |
| 2023-11-12 | Atletico Madrid | Villarreal | La Liga | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atletico Madrid vs Villarreal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 51.0%, draw 25.8%, away 23.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.90 | 3.55 | 3.85 |
| 1xBet | 1.92 | 3.84 | 4.26 |
| 888Sport | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 1.91 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| Betfair | 1.87 | 3.70 | 4.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.90 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.89 | 3.78 | 4.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.88 | 3.76 | 4.18 |
| SBO | 1.86 | 3.23 | 3.55 |
| Superbet | 1.90 | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| Unibet | 1.86 | 3.70 | 4.00 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.60 | 4.00 |
| betclic_fr | 1.83 | 3.83 | 4.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .