Rayo Vallecano
vs
Alaves
1 – 1 Full time
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves
| Probability | Rayo Vallecano | Draw | Alaves |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.3% | 26.8% | 24.9% |
| Market | 41.7% | 31.1% | 27.1% |
| Final | 43.4% | 30.1% | 26.6% |
| Edge | +6.6% | -4.3% | -2.3% |
Why Rayo Vallecano
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.17.
- The market prices Rayo Vallecano below the model: +6.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rayo Vallecano and Alaves expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.72
Rayo Vallecano and Alaves attack and defence ratings
Rayo Vallecano
Alaves
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves: result vs prediction
Rayo Vallecano 1 – 1 Alaves
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rayo Vallecano | 43.4% | 2.30 | +6.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rayo Vallecano | 43.4% |
| Draw | 30.1% | |
| Alaves | 26.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.4% |
| No | 36.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rayo Vallecano win | 25.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.6% | |
| Loss | 54.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.3% |
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves stats
Rayo Vallecano and Alaves recent form
| Rayo Vallecano |
LLWWDD |
| Alaves |
WLWWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Alaves | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 1-2 |
| 2026-01-14 | Alaves | Rayo Vallecano | Copa del Rey | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Rayo Vallecano | Alaves | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-03-29 | Alaves | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 0-2 |
| 2024-10-26 | Rayo Vallecano | Alaves | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2024-03-10 | Alaves | Rayo Vallecano | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2023-09-15 | Rayo Vallecano | Alaves | La Liga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rayo Vallecano vs Alaves odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.8%, draw 31.1%, away 27.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.24 | 3.00 | 3.45 |
| 1xBet | 2.36 | 3.18 | 3.62 |
| 888Sport | 2.25 | 2.90 | 3.40 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.05 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.31 | 3.05 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.32 | 3.12 | 3.56 |
| Pinnacle | 2.28 | 3.11 | 3.73 |
| SBO | 2.24 | 3.02 | 3.10 |
| Superbet | 2.27 | 3.15 | 3.50 |
| Unibet | 2.28 | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 2.90 | 3.40 |
| unibet_fr | 2.25 | 3.15 | 3.65 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .