Elche vs Barcelona overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Elche vs Barcelona
| Probability | Elche | Draw | Barcelona |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.7% | 30.0% | 33.3% |
| Market | 12.1% | 17.4% | 70.5% |
| Final | 18.3% | 20.6% | 61.2% |
| Edge | +24.6% | +12.6% | -37.1% |
Why Barcelona
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Elche and Barcelona expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.74
Elche and Barcelona attack and defence ratings
Elche
Barcelona
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Elche vs Barcelona: result vs prediction
Elche 0 – 5 Barcelona
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Elche vs Barcelona markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barcelona | 61.2% | 1.63 | -37.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 81.7% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Elche | 18.3% |
| Draw | 20.6% | |
| Barcelona | 61.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.2% |
| No | 40.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 38.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 81.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barcelona win | 16.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.1% | |
| Loss | 66.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.6% | |
| 0-0 | 8.4% |
Elche vs Barcelona stats
Elche vs Barcelona head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | Elche | Barcelona | La Liga | 1-3 |
| 2025-11-02 | Barcelona | Elche | La Liga | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Elche vs Barcelona odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 12.0%, draw 17.4%, away 70.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 8.80 | 5.10 | 1.31 |
| 1xBet | 7.90 | 5.68 | 1.40 |
| 888Sport | 7.50 | 5.00 | 1.36 |
| Bet365 | 8.50 | 5.25 | 1.33 |
| BetVictor | 9.00 | 5.50 | 1.30 |
| Betano | 8.25 | 5.40 | 1.39 |
| Betfair | 8.00 | 5.50 | 1.33 |
| Dafabet | 7.80 | 5.60 | 1.36 |
| Marathonbet | 7.80 | 5.60 | 1.38 |
| Pinnacle | 8.52 | 5.85 | 1.34 |
| SBO | 6.86 | 5.13 | 1.36 |
| Superbet | 7.50 | 5.60 | 1.37 |
| Unibet | 8.50 | 5.60 | 1.32 |
| William Hill | 7.00 | 5.00 | 1.36 |
| coolbet | 8.00 | 5.55 | 1.38 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .