Barcelona
vs
Athletic Club
2 – 0 Full time
Barcelona vs Athletic Club overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Barcelona vs Athletic Club
| Probability | Barcelona | Draw | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.4% | 22.2% | 13.4% |
| Market | 76.9% | 14.5% | 8.6% |
| Final | 73.8% | 16.4% | 9.8% |
| Edge | -12.6% | +7.8% | +4.8% |
Why Barcelona
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Barcelona and Athletic Club expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.15
Barcelona and Athletic Club attack and defence ratings
Barcelona
Athletic Club
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Barcelona vs Athletic Club: result vs prediction
Barcelona 2 – 0 Athletic Club
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Barcelona vs Athletic Club markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barcelona | 73.8% | 1.36 | -12.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.2% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Barcelona win | 43.0% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barcelona | 73.8% |
| Draw | 16.4% | |
| Athletic Club | 9.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.0% |
| No | 42.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barcelona win | 43.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 35.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 2-0 | 9.9% | |
| 2-1 | 9.8% |
Barcelona vs Athletic Club stats
Barcelona and Athletic Club recent form
| Barcelona |
WLWLWW |
| Athletic Club |
LLDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Barcelona vs Athletic Club head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-07 | Athletic Club | Barcelona | La Liga | 0-1 |
| 2026-01-07 | Barcelona | Athletic Club | Super Cup | 5-0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Barcelona | Athletic Club | La Liga | 4-0 |
| 2025-05-25 | Athletic Club | Barcelona | La Liga | 0-3 |
| 2025-01-08 | Athletic Club | Barcelona | Super Cup | 0-2 |
| 2024-08-24 | Barcelona | Athletic Club | La Liga | 2-1 |
| 2024-03-03 | Athletic Club | Barcelona | La Liga | 0-0 |
| 2024-01-24 | Athletic Club | Barcelona | Copa del Rey | 4-2 |
| 2023-10-22 | Barcelona | Athletic Club | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2023-03-12 | Athletic Club | Barcelona | La Liga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Barcelona vs Athletic Club odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 76.7%, draw 14.5%, away 8.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.24 | 6.50 | 9.20 |
| 1xBet | 1.28 | 6.75 | 11.60 |
| 888Sport | 1.25 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.22 | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.22 | 6.50 | 11.50 |
| Betano | 1.28 | 6.30 | 11.50 |
| Betfair | 1.22 | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.25 | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.26 | 6.65 | 11.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.24 | 6.60 | 11.28 |
| SBO | 1.22 | 6.18 | 9.45 |
| Superbet | 1.25 | 6.80 | 10.00 |
| Unibet | 1.22 | 6.75 | 11.50 |
| William Hill | 1.25 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| winamax_de | 1.38 | 5.10 | 6.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
18 snapshots recorded, from .