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La Liga · Full time ·Matchday 1

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

4 – 1 Full time

Bernabéu, MadridReferee: Mateo Busquets Ferrer, Spain

Real Madrid 73%
Draw 17%
Real Sociedad 10%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityReal MadridDrawReal Sociedad
Model65.6%20.0%14.4%
Market75.6%15.4%9.1%
Final73.1%16.5%10.4%
Edge-10.0%+4.6%+5.4%

Confidence: High

Why Real Madrid

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.45 vs 1.20.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Real Madrid ↓ / Real Sociedad → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 9% 2 8% 9% 5% 3 7% 8% 5% 4+ 8% 9% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 90%
3+ goals 73%
No goals 4%

Real Madrid and Real Sociedad expected goals

Real Madrid 2.45
Real Sociedad 1.20

Total expected goals: 3.65

Real Madrid and Real Sociedad attack and defence ratings

Real Madrid

Attack 1.23 +23%
Defence 1.01 +1%

Real Sociedad

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 1.27 +27%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad: result vs prediction

Real Madrid 4 – 1 Real Sociedad

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 1 fixtures

La Liga

Before and after this match

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Real Madrid 73.1% 1.37 -10.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 72.7% 1.38 — —
Both teams to score Yes 66.0% 1.52 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 89.6% 1.12 — —
Handicap -1 Real Madrid win 45.8% 2.18 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Real Madrid73.1%
Draw16.5%
Real Sociedad10.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.572.7%
Under 2.527.3%
Both teams to scoreYes66.0%
No34.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)89.6%
12 (either side)83.5%
X2 (draw or away)26.9%
Handicap -1Real Madrid win45.8%
Push (exactly one goal)19.7%
Loss34.4%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.1%
1-18.5%
3-17.8%

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad stats

Real Madrid and Real Sociedad recent form

newest first
Real Madrid WWWWLW
Real Sociedad LDLDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7Real Madrid wins 2Draws 1Real Sociedad wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-14Real MadridReal SociedadLa Liga4-1
2025-09-13Real SociedadReal MadridLa Liga1-2
2025-05-24Real MadridReal SociedadLa Liga2-0
2025-04-01Real MadridReal SociedadCopa del Rey4-4
2025-02-26Real SociedadReal MadridCopa del Rey0-1
2024-09-14Real SociedadReal MadridLa Liga0-2
2024-04-26Real SociedadReal MadridLa Liga0-1
2023-09-17Real MadridReal SociedadLa Liga2-1
2023-05-02Real SociedadReal MadridLa Liga2-0
2023-01-29Real MadridReal SociedadLa Liga0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 75.4%, draw 15.5%, away 9.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.25 5.90 9.60
1xBet 1.30 6.34 10.90
888Sport 1.29 5.75 9.50
Bet365 1.25 6.00 11.00
BetVictor 1.22 6.50 12.00
Betano 1.30 6.10 11.00
Betfair 1.25 6.50 11.00
Dafabet 1.26 6.60 10.00
Marathonbet 1.28 6.25 10.75
Pinnacle 1.27 6.45 10.62
SBO 1.25 6.18 9.45
Superbet 1.27 6.50 9.50
Unibet 1.25 6.10 10.50
William Hill 1.29 5.80 9.50
codere_it 1.42 5.00 6.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.27 ▼ -0.12
X 6.21 ▲ +1.21
2 10.56 ▲ +3.56

16 snapshots recorded, from .