Espanyol
vs
Real Madrid
1 – 2 Full time
Espanyol vs Real Madrid overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Espanyol vs Real Madrid
| Probability | Espanyol | Draw | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.6% | 28.6% | 32.8% |
| Market | 13.4% | 20.3% | 66.3% |
| Final | 19.7% | 22.4% | 57.9% |
| Edge | +25.2% | +8.3% | -33.5% |
Why Real Madrid
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Espanyol and Real Madrid expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.95
Espanyol and Real Madrid attack and defence ratings
Espanyol
Real Madrid
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Espanyol vs Real Madrid: result vs prediction
Espanyol 1 – 2 Real Madrid
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Espanyol vs Real Madrid markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 57.9% | 1.73 | -33.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 80.3% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.0% | 1.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Espanyol | 19.7% |
| Draw | 22.4% | |
| Real Madrid | 57.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.8% |
| No | 37.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 42.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 80.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Madrid win | 16.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.6% | |
| Loss | 67.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
Espanyol vs Real Madrid stats
Espanyol and Real Madrid recent form
| Espanyol |
WDWWLL |
| Real Madrid |
WWWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Espanyol vs Real Madrid head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Espanyol | Real Madrid | La Liga | 0-2 |
| 2025-09-20 | Real Madrid | Espanyol | La Liga | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-01 | Espanyol | Real Madrid | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-21 | Real Madrid | Espanyol | La Liga | 4-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Espanyol vs Real Madrid odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 13.4%, draw 20.3%, away 66.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 7.60 | 4.30 | 1.42 |
| 1xBet | 7.42 | 4.83 | 1.48 |
| 888Sport | 6.50 | 4.40 | 1.44 |
| Bet365 | 7.00 | 4.50 | 1.44 |
| BetVictor | 7.50 | 4.80 | 1.40 |
| Betano | 7.10 | 4.70 | 1.50 |
| Betfair | 7.00 | 4.60 | 1.44 |
| Dafabet | 7.20 | 5.00 | 1.42 |
| Marathonbet | 7.30 | 4.75 | 1.46 |
| Pinnacle | 7.32 | 4.83 | 1.45 |
| SBO | 6.76 | 4.58 | 1.41 |
| Superbet | 6.30 | 4.70 | 1.48 |
| Unibet | 7.50 | 4.70 | 1.41 |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 4.40 | 1.44 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .