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La Liga · Full time ·Matchday 3

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano

5 – 2 Full time

12′S. Camello
19′Raphinha
21′Lamine Yamal
32′J. VertrouwdA. Pedrosa
51′F. Lejeune
57′G. BouareP. Diaz
57′J. de FrutosF. Perez
59′S. Camello
64′M. BernalRodri
64′D. OlmoFermín
71′Raphinha
75′U. LopezR. Nteka
75′S. CamelloAlemao
77′PedriJ. Cancelo
77′A. GordonK. Adeyemi
86′RaphinhaH. Abdelkarim
90′Adrià Pedrosa
90′Lamine Yamal

Camp Nou, BarcelonaReferee: Francisco Hernandez Maeso, Spain

Barcelona 83%
Draw 11%
Rayo Vallecano 6%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

26 Shots 11
9 Shots on target 5
69 Possession % 31
9 Corners 5
4 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 4
3 Saves 5
585 Accurate passes 212

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBarcelonaDrawRayo Vallecano
Model71.1%18.5%10.4%
Market87.2%8.6%4.1%
Final83.2%11.1%5.7%
Edge-16.1%+9.9%+6.2%

Confidence: High

Why Barcelona

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 0.98.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Barcelona ↓ / Rayo Vallecano → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 8% 2 9% 9% 3 8% 8% 4+ 10% 10%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 4%

Barcelona and Rayo Vallecano expected goals

Barcelona 2.50
Rayo Vallecano 0.98

Total expected goals: 3.48

Barcelona and Rayo Vallecano attack and defence ratings

Barcelona

Attack 1.54 +54%
Defence 0.85 -15%

Rayo Vallecano

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano: result vs prediction

Barcelona 5 – 2 Rayo Vallecano

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

La Liga

Before and after this match

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Barcelona 83.2% 1.20 -16.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.8% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.3% 1.69 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 94.3% 1.06 — —
Handicap -1 Barcelona win 51.4% 1.95 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Barcelona83.2%
Draw11.1%
Rayo Vallecano5.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.8%
Under 2.530.2%
Both teams to scoreYes59.3%
No40.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)94.3%
12 (either side)88.9%
X2 (draw or away)16.8%
Handicap -1Barcelona win51.4%
Push (exactly one goal)19.8%
Loss28.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-09.4%
2-19.2%
1-18.4%

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano stats

Barcelona and Rayo Vallecano recent form

newest first
Barcelona WWLWLW
Rayo Vallecano DLLWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4Barcelona wins 3Draws 3Rayo Vallecano wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-22BarcelonaRayo VallecanoLa Liga1-0
2025-08-31Rayo VallecanoBarcelonaLa Liga1-1
2025-02-17BarcelonaRayo VallecanoLa Liga1-0
2024-08-27Rayo VallecanoBarcelonaLa Liga1-2
2024-05-19BarcelonaRayo VallecanoLa Liga3-0
2023-11-25Rayo VallecanoBarcelonaLa Liga1-1
2023-04-26Rayo VallecanoBarcelonaLa Liga2-1
2022-08-13BarcelonaRayo VallecanoLa Liga0-0
2022-04-24BarcelonaRayo VallecanoLa Liga0-1
2021-10-27Rayo VallecanoBarcelonaLa Liga1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Barcelona vs Rayo Vallecano odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 87.2%, draw 8.7%, away 4.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.09 10.25 18.50
1xBet 1.12 11.70 27.00
Bet365 1.08 12.00 21.00
BetVictor 1.07 12.00 26.00
Betano 1.13 10.25 22.00
Betfair 1.10 11.00 23.00
Dafabet 1.09 12.00 25.00
Marathonbet 1.11 11.00 26.00
Pinnacle 1.11 10.50 26.50
SBO 1.09 10.60 19.24
Superbet 1.09 12.00 23.00
Unibet 1.09 11.00 21.00
William Hill 1.10 10.00 23.00
unibet_fr 1.24 5.30 8.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.09 ▼ -0.15
X 11.00 ▲ +5.70
2 23.00 ▲ +14.90

14 snapshots recorded, from .