Alaves
vs
Osasuna
5 – 2 Full time
| 27′ | L. Boye | ||
| 36′ | M. Diaz | ||
| 46′ | A. Budimir | ||
| 51′ | L. Boye | ||
| 58′ | Abel Bretones | ||
| 60′ | F. BoyomoR. Yeboah | ||
| 60′ | M. GomezR. Moro | ||
| 60′ | R. GarciaJ. Dubasin | ||
| 62′ | Abderrahman Rebbach | ||
| 64′ | A. Budimir | ||
| 68′ | L. Boye | ||
| 71′ | A. RebbachYusi | ||
| 71′ | C. AlenaD. Suarez | ||
| 71′ | M. DiazA. Manas | ||
| 80′ | Jonny OttoX. Olaiz | ||
| 84′ | Rockson Yeboah | ||
| 85′ | L. BoyeM. Rodriguez | ||
| 85′ | I. ArguibideA. Osambela | ||
| 90′ | P. Ibanez |
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 5 |
| 50 | Possession % | 50 |
| 4 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Offsides | 2 |
| 3 | Saves | 2 |
| 332 | Accurate passes | 330 |
Alaves vs Osasuna overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alaves vs Osasuna
| Probability | Alaves | Draw | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.7% | 29.9% | 22.4% |
| Market | 41.5% | 30.7% | 27.8% |
| Final | 43.0% | 30.5% | 26.4% |
| Edge | +6.2% | -0.8% | -5.3% |
Why Alaves
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.04.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Alaves below the model: +6.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alaves and Osasuna expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.54
Alaves and Osasuna attack and defence ratings
Alaves
Osasuna
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Alaves vs Osasuna: result vs prediction
Alaves 5 – 2 Osasuna
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alaves vs Osasuna markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alaves | 43.0% | 2.32 | +6.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.7% | 1.90 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alaves | 43.0% |
| Draw | 30.5% | |
| Osasuna | 26.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.7% |
| No | 46.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Alaves win | 25.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.5% | |
| Loss | 52.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-0 | 9.7% | |
| 2-1 | 9.5% |
Alaves vs Osasuna stats
Alaves vs Osasuna head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Alaves | Osasuna | La Liga | 2-2 |
| 2025-12-20 | Osasuna | Alaves | La Liga | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-24 | Alaves | Osasuna | La Liga | 1-1 |
| 2024-12-08 | Osasuna | Alaves | La Liga | 2-2 |
| 2024-08-10 | Osasuna | Alaves | Friendlies Clubs | 1-2 |
| 2024-03-04 | Osasuna | Alaves | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2023-10-01 | Alaves | Osasuna | La Liga | 0-2 |
| 2023-08-04 | Osasuna | Alaves | Friendlies Clubs | 2-3 |
| 2022-04-10 | Osasuna | Alaves | La Liga | 1-0 |
| 2022-01-27 | Osasuna | Alaves | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Alaves vs Osasuna odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.5%, draw 30.8%, away 27.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.24 | 3.05 | 3.45 |
| 1xBet | 2.37 | 3.19 | 3.58 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.13 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.30 | 3.05 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.33 | 3.14 | 3.52 |
| Pinnacle | 2.34 | 3.12 | 3.57 |
| SBO | 2.20 | 2.85 | 3.08 |
| Superbet | 2.30 | 3.15 | 3.45 |
| Unibet | 2.30 | 3.05 | 3.40 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
15 snapshots recorded, from .