Garuda Lions
Today
La Liga · Full time ·Matchday 4

Real Betis vs Real Madrid

1 – 0 Full time

39′D. LlorenteM. Bartra
45′Arda Güler
54′Ibrahima Konaté
60′IscoA. Fidalgo
61′Eduardo Camavinga
64′Facundo Bernal
64′D. DumfriesT. Alexander-Arnold
64′E. CamavingaB. Silva
64′A. GulerY. Diomande
69′F. BernalN. Deossa
69′C. HernandezT. Parrott
77′AntonyR. Riquelme
81′T. Parrott
82′F. ValverdeC. Espi
83′Marc Roca
88′M. CucurellaA. Carreras
90′Natan
90′Vinícius Júnior

Estadio de la Cartuja, SevilleReferee: Alejandro Hernandez, Spain

Real Betis 19%
Draw 20%
Real Madrid 61%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 20
5 Shots on target 8
42 Possession % 58
6 Corners 10
11 Fouls 13
1 Offsides 2
6 Saves 4
359 Accurate passes 536

Real Betis vs Real Madrid overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Real Betis vs Real Madrid

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityReal BetisDrawReal Madrid
Model30.7%25.2%44.1%
Market15.0%18.3%66.7%
Final18.9%20.0%61.1%
Edge+15.7%+7.0%-22.6%

Confidence: High

Why Real Madrid

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.55.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 4 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Real Betis ↓ / Real Madrid → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 1 11% 9% 6% 2 7% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 69%
No goals 5%

Real Betis and Real Madrid expected goals

Real Betis 1.55
Real Madrid 1.96

Total expected goals: 3.51

Real Betis and Real Madrid attack and defence ratings

Real Betis

Attack 1.08 +8%
Defence 1.22 +22%

Real Madrid

Attack 1.43 +43%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Real Betis vs Real Madrid: result vs prediction

Real Betis 1 – 0 Real Madrid

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

La Liga

Before and after this match

Real Betis vs Real Madrid markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Real Madrid 61.1% 1.64 -22.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.4% 1.44 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.7% 1.41 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 81.1% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.9% 1.79 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Real Betis18.9%
Draw20.0%
Real Madrid61.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.4%
Under 2.530.6%
Both teams to scoreYes70.7%
No29.3%
Double chance1X (home or draw)38.9%
12 (either side)80.0%
X2 (draw or away)81.1%
Handicap -1Real Madrid win25.7%
Push (exactly one goal)18.3%
Loss55.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.6%
1-28.7%
2-17.2%

Real Betis vs Real Madrid stats

Real Betis and Real Madrid recent form

newest first
Real Betis LWWWLW
Real Madrid WWWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Real Betis vs Real Madrid head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Real Betis wins 5Draws 4Real Madrid wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-24Real BetisReal MadridLa Liga1-1
2026-01-04Real MadridReal BetisLa Liga5-1
2025-03-01Real BetisReal MadridLa Liga2-1
2024-09-01Real MadridReal BetisLa Liga2-0
2024-05-25Real MadridReal BetisLa Liga0-0
2023-12-09Real BetisReal MadridLa Liga1-1
2023-03-05Real BetisReal MadridLa Liga0-0
2022-09-03Real MadridReal BetisLa Liga2-1
2022-05-20Real MadridReal BetisLa Liga0-0
2021-08-28Real BetisReal MadridLa Liga0-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Real Betis vs Real Madrid odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 15.0%, draw 18.3%, away 66.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 6.50 5.20 1.38
1xBet 6.04 5.28 1.51
Bet365 7.00 5.25 1.38
BetVictor 6.50 5.25 1.40
Betano 5.90 5.40 1.50
Betfair 6.50 5.00 1.44
Dafabet 6.20 5.40 1.45
Marathonbet 6.05 5.25 1.48
Pinnacle 6.41 5.18 1.45
SBO 5.90 4.69 1.34
Superbet 7.00 5.35 1.40
Unibet 6.75 5.10 1.41
William Hill 6.00 4.80 1.44

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 6.41 ▲ +1.71
X 5.25 ▲ +1.00
2 1.44 ▼ -0.20

11 snapshots recorded, from .