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La Liga · Full time ·Matchday 4

Elche vs Real Sociedad

2 – 3 Full time

9′Jon Aramburu
11′J. Ochieng
31′Y. Herrera
43′Tete Morente
55′F. BuonanotteT. Lemar
55′E. PonceA. Osorio
57′Fernando Niño
58′M. SarrJ. Martin
58′G. GuedesA. Marchal
64′Jon Martin
67′T. Lemar
68′Germán Valera
70′G. VillarL. Cepeda
70′Y. HerreraJ. Pacheco
70′M. OyarzabalJ. Gorrotxategi
74′F. Nino
81′Buba SangareR. Revivo
81′G. ValeraJosan
81′Real SociedadH. Fort
90′Thomas Lemar
90′L. Sucic

Estadio Martínez Valero, ElcheReferee: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias, Spain

Elche 33%
Draw 27%
Real Sociedad 40%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

20 Shots 13
10 Shots on target 6
58 Possession % 42
6 Corners 7
9 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 1
3 Saves 8
440 Accurate passes 300

Elche vs Real Sociedad overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Elche vs Real Sociedad

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityElcheDrawReal Sociedad
Model45.8%26.3%27.9%
Market28.4%27.2%44.3%
Final32.8%27.0%40.2%
Edge+17.3%-0.9%-16.4%

Confidence: High

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Elche ↓ / Real Sociedad → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 12% 7% 2 6% 9% 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 65%
No goals 6%

Elche and Real Sociedad expected goals

Elche 1.79
Real Sociedad 1.45

Total expected goals: 3.24

Elche and Real Sociedad attack and defence ratings

Elche

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 1.21 +21%

Real Sociedad

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 1.22 +22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Elche vs Real Sociedad: result vs prediction

Elche 2 – 3 Real Sociedad

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

La Liga

Before and after this match

Elche vs Real Sociedad markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Real Sociedad 40.2% 2.49 -16.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 64.6% 1.55 — —
Both teams to score Yes 66.8% 1.50 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.0% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 72.1% 1.39 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Elche32.8%
Draw27.0%
Real Sociedad40.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.564.6%
Under 2.535.4%
Both teams to scoreYes66.8%
No33.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.8%
12 (either side)73.0%
X2 (draw or away)67.2%
Handicap -1Real Sociedad win13.6%
Push (exactly one goal)14.4%
Loss72.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.7%
2-19.2%
1-27.1%

Elche vs Real Sociedad stats

Elche and Real Sociedad recent form

newest first
Elche LLDDWL
Real Sociedad DWLLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Elche vs Real Sociedad head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Elche wins 1Draws 8Real Sociedad wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-07Real SociedadElcheLa Liga3-1
2025-11-07ElcheReal SociedadLa Liga1-1
2023-03-19Real SociedadElcheLa Liga2-0
2022-08-27ElcheReal SociedadLa Liga0-1
2022-04-10ElcheReal SociedadLa Liga1-2
2021-09-26Real SociedadElcheLa Liga1-0
2021-05-07Real SociedadElcheLa Liga2-0
2020-09-26ElcheReal SociedadLa Liga0-3
2015-04-20ElcheReal SociedadLa Liga1-0
2014-11-28Real SociedadElcheLa Liga3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Elche vs Real Sociedad odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 28.4%, draw 27.2%, away 44.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.15 3.50 2.14
1xBet 3.52 3.60 2.21
Bet365 3.40 3.50 2.10
BetVictor 3.30 3.60 2.10
Betano 3.35 3.50 2.15
Betfair 3.40 3.40 2.15
Dafabet 2.95 3.45 2.43
Marathonbet 3.46 3.54 2.17
Pinnacle 3.57 3.51 2.16
SBO 3.23 3.41 2.10
Superbet 3.40 3.55 2.15
Unibet 3.35 3.40 2.15
William Hill 3.30 3.30 2.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.35 ▲ +0.73
X 3.50 ▲ +0.15
2 2.15 ▼ -0.45

17 snapshots recorded, from .