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La Liga · Full time ·Matchday 6

Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna

4 – 0 Full time

24′Jonathan David
50′Ademola Lookman
54′Lee Kang-In
59′Jonathan DubasinEnrique Barja Alfonso
59′Raul MoroRubén García
60′Raul GarcíaAnte Budimir
63′Robin Le Normand
68′Cristian RomeroMarc Pubill
68′Jonathan DavidGiuliano Simeone Baldini
68′Ademola LookmanArnau Ortiz
71′Íñigo ArguibideJon Moncayola
74′Asier OsambelaRomain Del Castillo
82′Alejandro Baena Rodríguez
85′Johnny CardosoMorten Hjulmand
85′Alejandro GrimaldoDávid Hancko
86′Rubén García
90′Abel Bretones

Riyadh Air Metropolitano, MadridReferee: F. Maeso

Atletico Madrid 61%
Draw 22%
Osasuna 17%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

27 Shots 3
11 Shots on target 1
68 Possession % 32
8 Corners 0
7 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 1
1 Saves 7
581 Accurate passes 232

Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtletico MadridDrawOsasuna
Model38.6%29.2%32.1%
Market68.7%20.0%11.3%
Final61.2%22.3%16.5%
Edge-30.0%+9.2%+20.8%

Confidence: High

Why Atletico Madrid

  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atletico Madri ↓ / Osasuna → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 14% 8% 2 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 8%

Atletico Madrid and Osasuna expected goals

Atletico Madrid 1.46
Osasuna 1.38

Total expected goals: 2.84

Atletico Madrid and Osasuna attack and defence ratings

Atletico Madrid

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Osasuna

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna: result vs prediction

Atletico Madrid 4 – 0 Osasuna

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 6 fixtures

La Liga

Before and after this match

Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atletico Madrid 61.2% 1.64 -30.0% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.7% 1.79 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.0% 1.64 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.5% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 61.4% 1.63 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atletico Madrid61.2%
Draw22.3%
Osasuna16.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.7%
Under 2.544.3%
Both teams to scoreYes61.0%
No39.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.5%
12 (either side)77.7%
X2 (draw or away)38.8%
Handicap -1Atletico Madrid win20.1%
Push (exactly one goal)18.5%
Loss61.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.8%
2-18.8%
1-27.9%

Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna stats

Atletico Madrid and Osasuna recent form

newest first
Atletico Madrid WLLWDW
Osasuna LLWWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atletico Madrid and Osasuna going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atletico Madrid record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.

Osasuna record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

8Atletico Madrid wins 0Draws 2Osasuna wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-12OsasunaAtletico MadridLa Liga1-2
2025-10-18Atletico MadridOsasunaLa Liga1-0
2025-05-15OsasunaAtletico MadridLa Liga2-0
2025-01-12Atletico MadridOsasunaLa Liga1-0
2024-05-19Atletico MadridOsasunaLa Liga1-4
2023-09-28OsasunaAtletico MadridLa Liga0-2
2023-05-21Atletico MadridOsasunaLa Liga3-0
2023-01-29OsasunaAtletico MadridLa Liga0-1
2022-02-19OsasunaAtletico MadridLa Liga0-3
2021-11-20Atletico MadridOsasunaLa Liga1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 67.5%, draw 20.8%, away 11.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.49 4.30 6.20
1xBet 1.44 4.93 8.30
888Sport 1.44 4.20 6.50
Bet365 1.38 4.50 9.00
BetVictor 1.36 4.80 9.00
Betano 1.42 5.00 8.50
Betfair 1.36 4.60 9.00
Dafabet 1.48 4.60 6.40
Marathonbet 1.42 4.85 8.20
Pinnacle 1.41 4.86 8.70
SBO 1.34 4.27 6.66
Unibet 1.50 4.10 6.50
William Hill 1.40 4.50 7.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.40 ▼ -0.27
X 4.80 ▲ +1.00
2 8.50 ▲ +2.93

21 snapshots recorded, from .