AC Milan
vs
Venezia
2 – 0 Full time
AC Milan vs Venezia overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AC Milan vs Venezia
| Probability | AC Milan | Draw | Venezia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.5% | 25.5% | 53.0% |
| Market | 69.1% | 19.7% | 11.1% |
| Final | 57.2% | 21.2% | 21.6% |
| Edge | -47.6% | +5.8% | +41.9% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AC Milan and Venezia expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.24
AC Milan and Venezia attack and defence ratings
AC Milan
Venezia
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
AC Milan vs Venezia: result vs prediction
AC Milan 2 – 0 Venezia
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
AC Milan vs Venezia markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Milan | 57.2% | 1.75 | -47.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.8% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 78.5% | 1.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AC Milan | 57.2% |
| Draw | 21.2% | |
| Venezia | 21.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.4% |
| No | 36.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | AC Milan win | 9.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 12.0% | |
| Loss | 78.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 7.8% |
AC Milan vs Venezia stats
AC Milan vs Venezia head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-27 | Venezia | AC Milan | Serie A | 0-2 |
| 2024-09-14 | AC Milan | Venezia | Serie A | 4-0 |
| 2022-01-09 | Venezia | AC Milan | Serie A | 0-3 |
| 2021-09-22 | AC Milan | Venezia | Serie A | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AC Milan vs Venezia odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 69.2%, draw 19.7%, away 11.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.37 | 4.55 | 8.20 |
| 1xBet | 1.41 | 5.06 | 9.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.36 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.75 | 9.00 |
| Betano | 1.40 | 4.75 | 7.80 |
| Betfair | 1.36 | 4.75 | 9.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.40 | 5.00 | 8.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.38 | 4.95 | 8.90 |
| Pinnacle | 1.39 | 4.85 | 8.73 |
| SBO | 1.34 | 4.26 | 7.24 |
| Superbet | 1.40 | 4.90 | 7.90 |
| Unibet | 1.33 | 4.80 | 9.00 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.50 | 8.00 |
| onexbet | 1.43 | 4.86 | 9.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .