Venezia vs Lecce overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Venezia vs Lecce
| Probability | Venezia | Draw | Lecce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 78.1% | 15.5% | 6.4% |
| Market | 47.5% | 29.3% | 23.2% |
| Final | 55.2% | 25.8% | 19.0% |
| Edge | +30.6% | -13.8% | -16.8% |
Why Venezia
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.81 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Venezia below the model: +30.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Venezia and Lecce expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.58
Venezia and Lecce attack and defence ratings
Venezia
Lecce
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Venezia vs Lecce: result vs prediction
Venezia 0 – 2 Lecce
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Venezia vs Lecce markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Venezia | 55.2% | 1.81 | +30.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.0% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Venezia win | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Venezia | 55.2% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Lecce | 19.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 69.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 30.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.9% |
| No | 48.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Venezia win | 59.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 21.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.0% |
| 3-0 | 10.2% | |
| 2-1 | 8.5% |
Venezia vs Lecce stats
Venezia vs Lecce head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-06 | Lecce | Venezia | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-11-25 | Venezia | Lecce | Serie A | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Venezia vs Lecce odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.3%, draw 29.6%, away 23.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.22 | 3.15 | 3.30 |
| 1xBet | 2.05 | 3.35 | 4.34 |
| 888Sport | 2.00 | 3.00 | 3.90 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.20 | 4.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.20 | 4.10 |
| Betano | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.10 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.25 | 4.33 |
| Dafabet | 2.03 | 3.25 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.01 | 3.28 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.03 | 3.30 | 4.30 |
| SBO | 2.00 | 3.15 | 3.84 |
| Superbet | 2.02 | 3.30 | 4.10 |
| Unibet | 1.93 | 3.10 | 4.25 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.10 | 4.00 |
| betfair_ex_eu | 2.32 | 3.20 | 3.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .