Atalanta
vs
Sassuolo
2 – 1 Full time
Atalanta vs Sassuolo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atalanta vs Sassuolo
| Probability | Atalanta | Draw | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.9% | 28.2% | 38.9% |
| Market | 61.6% | 22.5% | 15.9% |
| Final | 54.4% | 23.9% | 21.7% |
| Edge | -28.7% | +5.7% | +23.0% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atalanta and Sassuolo expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.09
Atalanta and Sassuolo attack and defence ratings
Atalanta
Sassuolo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atalanta vs Sassuolo: result vs prediction
Atalanta 2 – 1 Sassuolo
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Atalanta vs Sassuolo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 54.4% | 1.84 | -28.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 67.3% | 1.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 54.4% |
| Draw | 23.9% | |
| Sassuolo | 21.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.9% |
| No | 36.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atalanta win | 16.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.4% | |
| Loss | 67.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 1-2 | 8.8% | |
| 2-1 | 8.0% |
Atalanta vs Sassuolo stats
Atalanta vs Sassuolo head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Sassuolo | Atalanta | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Atalanta | Sassuolo | Serie A | 0-3 |
| 2024-02-17 | Atalanta | Sassuolo | Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2023-08-20 | Sassuolo | Atalanta | Serie A | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Atalanta vs Sassuolo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 61.6%, draw 22.5%, away 15.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.51 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.60 | 4.40 | 6.19 |
| 888Sport | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.55 | 4.20 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.33 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.60 | 4.25 | 6.20 |
| Betfair | 1.55 | 4.20 | 6.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.55 | 4.40 | 6.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.56 | 4.30 | 6.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.54 | 4.37 | 6.35 |
| SBO | 1.52 | 4.11 | 5.80 |
| Superbet | 1.55 | 4.35 | 5.85 |
| Unibet | 1.50 | 4.10 | 6.10 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 4.00 | 5.50 |
| betfair_ex_eu | 1.59 | 4.40 | 6.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .