Genoa vs Napoli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Genoa vs Napoli
| Probability | Genoa | Draw | Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.0% | 30.8% | 36.3% |
| Market | 22.9% | 30.2% | 46.9% |
| Final | 25.4% | 30.4% | 44.2% |
| Edge | +10.1% | +0.5% | -10.6% |
Why Napoli
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Genoa and Napoli expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.69
Genoa and Napoli attack and defence ratings
Genoa
Napoli
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Genoa vs Napoli: result vs prediction
Genoa 0 – 2 Napoli
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Genoa vs Napoli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Napoli | 44.2% | 2.26 | -10.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 63.9% | 1.56 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genoa | 25.4% |
| Draw | 30.4% | |
| Napoli | 44.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.1% |
| No | 42.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 74.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Napoli win | 17.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 63.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-0 | 9.2% | |
| 1-2 | 8.5% |
Genoa vs Napoli stats
Genoa vs Napoli head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | Genoa | Napoli | Serie A | 2-3 |
| 2025-10-05 | Napoli | Genoa | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-11 | Napoli | Genoa | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2024-12-21 | Genoa | Napoli | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2024-02-17 | Napoli | Genoa | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2023-09-16 | Genoa | Napoli | Serie A | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Genoa vs Napoli odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.7%, draw 30.1%, away 47.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 4.60 | 3.30 | 1.82 |
| 1xBet | 4.43 | 3.22 | 2.09 |
| 888Sport | 3.80 | 3.00 | 2.05 |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 3.20 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.25 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 4.25 | 3.25 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 4.40 | 3.10 | 2.00 |
| Dafabet | 4.20 | 3.20 | 2.05 |
| Marathonbet | 4.33 | 3.14 | 2.04 |
| Pinnacle | 4.39 | 3.18 | 2.06 |
| SBO | 3.95 | 3.08 | 2.00 |
| Superbet | 4.15 | 3.25 | 2.02 |
| Unibet | 4.25 | 3.05 | 1.97 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.00 | 2.05 |
| unibet_fr | 4.40 | 3.30 | 1.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .