Parma Calcio 1913
vs
Cagliari
0 – 1 Full time
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Cagliari overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Cagliari
| Probability | Parma Calcio 1913 | Draw | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.8% | 30.5% | 42.7% |
| Market | 36.4% | 31.8% | 31.8% |
| Final | 34.0% | 31.5% | 34.5% |
| Edge | -9.6% | -1.3% | +10.9% |
Why Cagliari
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 1.16.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Cagliari below the model: +10.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Parma Calcio 1913 and Cagliari expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.65
Parma Calcio 1913 and Cagliari attack and defence ratings
Parma Calcio 1913
Cagliari
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Cagliari: result vs prediction
Parma Calcio 1913 0 – 1 Cagliari
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Cagliari markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cagliari | 34.5% | 2.90 | +10.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.7% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 68.5% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.5% | 1.74 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Parma Calcio 1913 | 34.0% |
| Draw | 31.5% | |
| Cagliari | 34.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.7% |
| No | 44.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 65.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cagliari win | 22.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 57.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.6% |
| 0-0 | 9.4% | |
| 1-2 | 9.1% |
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Cagliari stats
Parma Calcio 1913 and Cagliari recent form
| Parma Calcio 1913 |
WWLLLW |
| Cagliari |
WWWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Cagliari head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Cagliari | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Cagliari | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-09 | Cagliari | Parma Calcio 1913 | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-30 | Parma Calcio 1913 | Cagliari | Serie A | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Parma Calcio 1913 vs Cagliari odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.6%, draw 31.7%, away 31.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.48 | 3.05 | 2.94 |
| 1xBet | 2.71 | 3.06 | 3.12 |
| 888Sport | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.55 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.63 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.65 | 3.05 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.65 | 3.00 | 3.05 |
| Pinnacle | 2.68 | 3.02 | 3.10 |
| SBO | 2.62 | 2.86 | 2.86 |
| Superbet | 2.65 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| Unibet | 2.55 | 2.90 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.90 |
| unibet_fr | 2.45 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .