Roma
vs
Fiorentina
4 – 0 Full time
Roma vs Fiorentina overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Roma vs Fiorentina
| Probability | Roma | Draw | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.2% | 23.7% | 18.1% |
| Market | 56.0% | 24.9% | 19.1% |
| Final | 56.6% | 24.6% | 18.8% |
| Edge | +2.2% | -1.2% | -1.0% |
Why Roma
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 1.19.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Roma below the model: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Roma and Fiorentina expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.36
Roma and Fiorentina attack and defence ratings
Roma
Fiorentina
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Roma vs Fiorentina: result vs prediction
Roma 4 – 0 Fiorentina
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 1 fixtures
Before and after this match
Roma vs Fiorentina markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 56.6% | 1.77 | +2.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.8% | 2.39 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 56.6% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Fiorentina | 18.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.3% |
| No | 36.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 43.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win | 37.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 41.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 2-0 | 8.2% |
Roma vs Fiorentina stats
Roma and Fiorentina recent form
| Roma |
WWWWWD |
| Fiorentina |
WDWDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Roma vs Fiorentina head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-04 | Roma | Fiorentina | Serie A | 4-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Fiorentina | Roma | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2025-05-04 | Roma | Fiorentina | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-27 | Fiorentina | Roma | Serie A | 5-1 |
| 2024-03-10 | Fiorentina | Roma | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2023-12-10 | Roma | Fiorentina | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2023-05-27 | Fiorentina | Roma | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2023-01-15 | Roma | Fiorentina | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2022-05-09 | Fiorentina | Roma | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2021-08-22 | Roma | Fiorentina | Serie A | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Roma vs Fiorentina odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 56.1%, draw 24.8%, away 19.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.70 | 3.75 | 4.70 |
| 1xBet | 1.74 | 4.00 | 5.28 |
| 888Sport | 1.67 | 3.60 | 4.75 |
| Bet365 | 1.67 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.67 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.70 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.71 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.71 | 3.94 | 5.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.71 | 3.90 | 5.26 |
| SBO | 1.70 | 3.58 | 4.79 |
| Superbet | 1.72 | 3.85 | 4.90 |
| Unibet | 1.67 | 3.60 | 5.10 |
| William Hill | 1.70 | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| winamax_fr | 1.58 | 4.00 | 5.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .