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Coppa Italia · Full time ·Round of 32

Fiorentina vs Pisa

3 – 0 Full time

6′Franco Mastantuono
35′Felipe Loyola
40′Mateo Pellegrino
45′Radu DrăguşinViery
52′Simone Canestrelli
55′Víctor Valdepeñas Talavera
59′Simone ZanonAndrea Petagna
59′Emanuele RaoStefano Moreo
59′Filippo PittarelloSamuele Angori
60′Marco BrescianiniAlieu Njie
60′Franco MastantuonoPedro Goncalves
64′Andrea PrimassoFrancesco Coppola
71′Wilfried Gnonto
72′Víctor Valdepeñas TalaveraÁlex Jiménez
75′Mehdi LérisDaniel Denoon
83′Mateo PellegrinoBeto
90′Pedro Goncalves

Stadio Artemio Franchi, FlorenceReferee: L. Marinelli

Fiorentina 71%
Draw 18%
Pisa 10%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 6
7 Shots on target 0
53 Possession % 47
3 Corners 0
17 Fouls 9
1 Offsides 0
0 Saves 4
561 Accurate passes 469

Fiorentina vs Pisa overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Fiorentina vs Pisa

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFiorentinaDrawPisa
Model77.6%15.1%7.3%
Market69.1%19.6%11.4%
Final71.2%18.4%10.4%
Edge+8.6%-4.5%-4.1%

Confidence: Medium

Why Fiorentina

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.71 vs 0.75.
  • The market prices Fiorentina below the model: +8.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Fiorentina ↓ / Pisa → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 8% 7% 2 12% 9% 3 10% 8% 4+ 14% 10%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

Fiorentina and Pisa expected goals

Fiorentina 2.71
Pisa 0.75

Total expected goals: 3.46

Fiorentina and Pisa attack and defence ratings

Fiorentina

Attack 1.10 +10%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Pisa

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 1.31 +31%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Fiorentina vs Pisa: result vs prediction

Fiorentina 3 – 0 Pisa

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Round of 32 fixtures

Coppa Italia

Before and after this match

Fiorentina vs Pisa markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Fiorentina 71.2% 1.40 +8.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.9% 1.50 — —
Both teams to score No 50.0% 2.00 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 89.6% 1.12 — —
Handicap -1 Fiorentina win 57.9% 1.73 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Fiorentina71.2%
Draw18.4%
Pisa10.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.9%
Under 2.533.1%
Both teams to scoreYes50.0%
No50.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)89.6%
12 (either side)81.6%
X2 (draw or away)28.8%
Handicap -1Fiorentina win57.9%
Push (exactly one goal)20.0%
Loss22.1%
Correct score (top 3)2-011.6%
3-010.4%
2-18.7%

Fiorentina vs Pisa stats

Fiorentina and Pisa recent form

newest first
Fiorentina WLLLWD
Pisa LWWLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Fiorentina vs Pisa head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

1Fiorentina wins 1Draws 0Pisa wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-23FiorentinaPisaSerie A1-0
2025-09-28PisaFiorentinaSerie A0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Fiorentina vs Pisa odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 69.1%, draw 19.6%, away 11.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.36 5.04 8.25
Bet365 1.33 4.75 9.00
BetVictor 1.33 4.75 7.50
Betano 1.39 5.00 9.50
Betfair 1.33 5.00 9.00
Marathonbet 1.33 4.80 7.90
Pinnacle 1.36 5.10 8.74
SBO 1.36 4.59 6.86
William Hill 1.36 4.60 7.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.36 ▼ -0.16
X 4.80 ▲ +0.50
2 8.25 ▲ +2.22

6 snapshots recorded, from .