Palermo
vs
Mantova
5 – 2 Full time
| 9′ | G. Strefezza | ||
| 14′ | S. TrimboliR. Kouda | ||
| 43′ | Rareș Ilie | ||
| 45′ | A. Palumbo | ||
| 46′ | G. StrefezzaD. Johnsen | ||
| 46′ | I. CajazzoF. Ruocco | ||
| 46′ | F. ChinettiJ. Silva | ||
| 52′ | F. Ruocco | ||
| 55′ | R. Kouda | ||
| 58′ | Alessandro Gabrielloni | ||
| 60′ | E. GliozziV. Vlahovic | ||
| 61′ | G. MagnaniP. Peda | ||
| 61′ | A. PalumboHernani | ||
| 61′ | A. GabrielloniJ. Pohjanpalo | ||
| 62′ | Francesco Ruocco | ||
| 70′ | J. Pohjanpalo | ||
| 73′ | C. GomesJ. Segre | ||
| 77′ | T. Del LungoB. Tomasevic | ||
| 89′ | D. Johnsen | ||
| 90′ | J. Pohjanpalo |
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 44 | Possession % | 56 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Offsides | 6 |
| 6 | Saves | 4 |
| 257 | Accurate passes | 366 |
Palermo vs Mantova overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Palermo vs Mantova
| Probability | Palermo | Draw | Mantova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.0% | 22.6% | 14.4% |
| Market | 57.5% | 23.7% | 18.8% |
| Final | 58.9% | 23.5% | 17.7% |
| Edge | +5.5% | -1.1% | -4.4% |
Why Palermo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.87.
- The market prices Palermo below the model: +5.5 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Palermo and Mantova expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.88
Palermo and Mantova attack and defence ratings
Palermo
Mantova
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Palermo vs Mantova: result vs prediction
Palermo 5 – 2 Mantova
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Round of 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Palermo vs Mantova markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palermo | 58.9% | 1.70 | +5.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.3% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Palermo win | 39.5% | 2.53 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Palermo | 58.9% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Mantova | 17.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.2% |
| No | 48.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Palermo win | 39.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 37.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.4% |
| 1-1 | 10.8% | |
| 1-0 | 10.3% |
Palermo vs Mantova stats
Palermo vs Mantova head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Palermo | Mantova | Italy Serie B | 2-1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Mantova | Palermo | Italy Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-16 | Palermo | Mantova | Serie B | 2-2 |
| 2024-10-30 | Mantova | Palermo | Serie B | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Palermo vs Mantova odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.5%, draw 23.7%, away 18.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.63 | 3.95 | 4.90 |
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 4.04 | 5.22 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.60 | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.67 | 3.90 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.62 | 4.10 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.65 | 4.10 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.59 | 3.94 | 5.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.63 | 4.14 | 5.27 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.50 | 4.22 |
| Superbet | 1.67 | 4.00 | 4.90 |
| Unibet | 1.63 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.75 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
5 snapshots recorded, from .