Mantova
vs
Empoli
3 – 1 Full time
| 23′ | Gerard Yepes | ||
| 42′ | Alessio Castellini | ||
| 49′ | Karim Zedadka | ||
| 51′ | Francesco Bardi | ||
| 51′ | E. Saporiti | ||
| 55′ | E. GliozziV. Vlahovic | ||
| 55′ | K. ZedadkaL. Belardinelli | ||
| 56′ | L. IgnacchitiR. Kouda | ||
| 56′ | R. IlieI. Cajazzo | ||
| 57′ | Marco Curto | ||
| 58′ | F. Ruocco | ||
| 61′ | V. Vlahovic | ||
| 72′ | G. YepesL. Deli | ||
| 72′ | F. Di StefanoB. Popov | ||
| 74′ | Luca Belardinelli | ||
| 78′ | F. RuoccoJ. Longonda | ||
| 83′ | B. TomasevicE. Kospo | ||
| 86′ | Lapo Deli | ||
| 86′ | N. CorradoR. Berizzi | ||
| 86′ | E. SaporitiA. Orlandi | ||
| 90′ | Luca Magnino | ||
| 90′ | F. Benaissa-Yahia |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 6 |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 46 | Possession % | 54 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 13 | Fouls | 20 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 6 |
| 286 | Accurate passes | 321 |
Mantova vs Empoli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mantova vs Empoli
| Probability | Mantova | Draw | Empoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.8% | 25.6% | 20.6% |
| Market | 45.5% | 28.0% | 26.6% |
| Final | 47.5% | 27.4% | 25.1% |
| Edge | +8.3% | -2.3% | -6.0% |
Why Mantova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Mantova below the model: +8.3 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mantova and Empoli expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.78
Mantova and Empoli attack and defence ratings
Mantova
Empoli
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Mantova vs Empoli: result vs prediction
Mantova 3 – 1 Empoli
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mantova vs Empoli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mantova | 47.5% | 2.10 | +8.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.9% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.5% | 2.15 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mantova | 47.5% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Empoli | 25.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.1% |
| No | 45.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mantova win | 30.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 46.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-0 | 9.8% |
Mantova vs Empoli stats
Mantova vs Empoli head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Empoli | Mantova | Italy Serie B | 2-2 |
| 2025-12-21 | Mantova | Empoli | Italy Serie B | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mantova vs Empoli odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.5%, draw 28.0%, away 26.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.08 | 3.40 | 3.40 |
| 1xBet | 1.98 | 3.40 | 3.74 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 3.40 | 3.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.14 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 1.96 | 3.40 | 3.74 |
| Pinnacle | 1.99 | 3.42 | 3.90 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 2.94 | 3.05 |
| Unibet | 1.97 | 3.15 | 3.50 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .