Italy Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 2
Ascoli
vs
Carrarese
1 – 1 Full time
Ascoli
56%
Draw
24%
Carrarese
20%
Ascoli vs Carrarese overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ascoli vs Carrarese
| Probability | Ascoli | Draw | Carrarese |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.6% | 24.1% | 20.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 55.6% | 24.1% | 20.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Ascoli
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 3 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
81%
3+ goals
58%
No goals
6%
Ascoli and Carrarese expected goals
Ascoli
1.91
Carrarese
1.10
Total expected goals: 3.01
Ascoli and Carrarese attack and defence ratings
Ascoli
Attack
1.20 +20%
Defence
1.21 +21%
Carrarese
Attack
0.84 -16%
Defence
1.08 +8%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ascoli vs Carrarese: result vs prediction
Ascoli 1 – 1 Carrarese
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ascoli vs Carrarese markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ascoli | 55.6% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.8% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.8% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ascoli | 55.6% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Carrarese | 20.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% |
| No | 42.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ascoli win | 32.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.4% | |
| Loss | 44.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.1% |