Italy Serie B
·
Full time
·Matchday 3
Ascoli
vs
Benevento
1 – 0 Full time
| 20′ | Antonio Prisco | ||
| 42′ | Nicholas Rizzo | ||
| 42′ | Antonio Prisco | ||
| 42′ | Antonio Prisco | ||
| 45′ | Marcos Curado | ||
| 46′ | M. TumminelloC. Dalle Mura | ||
| 46′ | L. CherubiniC. Kouan | ||
| 53′ | S. PerciunM. Brunori | ||
| 54′ | A. SilipoG. De Pieri | ||
| 54′ | G. GoriM. A. Chakir | ||
| 64′ | D. LamestaA. Siatounis | ||
| 66′ | Pietro Beruatto | ||
| 68′ | Mattia Maita | ||
| 69′ | P. BeruattoE. Pierozzi | ||
| 73′ | S. DamianiG. Acampora | ||
| 84′ | M. Brunori | ||
| 85′ | P. SaioD. Okereke | ||
| 86′ | Christian Kouan | ||
| 88′ | T. MilaneseF. Gattoni |
Ascoli
44%
Draw
27%
Benevento
28%
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 4 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 0 |
| 57 | Possession % | 43 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Offsides | 2 |
| 0 | Saves | 3 |
| 339 | Accurate passes | 225 |
Ascoli vs Benevento overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ascoli vs Benevento
| Probability | Ascoli | Draw | Benevento |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55.7% | 21.1% | 23.2% |
| Market | 40.3% | 29.5% | 30.2% |
| Final | 44.2% | 27.4% | 28.5% |
| Edge | +15.4% | -8.4% | -7.0% |
Why Ascoli
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 1.49.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 4 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Ascoli below the model: +15.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
97%
2+ goals
90%
3+ goals
74%
No goals
3%
Ascoli and Benevento expected goals
Ascoli
2.34
Benevento
1.49
Total expected goals: 3.83
Ascoli and Benevento attack and defence ratings
Ascoli
Attack
1.14 +14%
Defence
1.15 +15%
Benevento
Attack
1.20 +20%
Defence
1.39 +39%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ascoli vs Benevento: result vs prediction
Ascoli 1 – 0 Benevento
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ascoli vs Benevento markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ascoli | 44.2% | 2.26 | +15.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.7% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.2% | 2.26 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ascoli | 44.2% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Benevento | 28.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.7% |
| No | 29.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ascoli win | 35.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 44.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.9% |
| 1-1 | 8.3% | |
| 3-1 | 6.9% |
Ascoli vs Benevento stats
Ascoli vs Benevento head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
2Ascoli wins
4Draws
4Benevento wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-02-26 | Ascoli | Benevento | Serie B | 0-0 |
| 2022-10-02 | Benevento | Ascoli | Serie B | 1-1 |
| 2022-05-13 | Ascoli | Benevento | Serie B | 0-1 |
| 2022-02-16 | Benevento | Ascoli | Serie B | 0-2 |
| 2021-09-18 | Ascoli | Benevento | Serie B | 0-2 |
| 2020-07-31 | Ascoli | Benevento | Serie B | 2-4 |
| 2019-12-29 | Benevento | Ascoli | Serie B | 4-0 |
| 2019-03-30 | Ascoli | Benevento | Serie B | 2-2 |
| 2018-11-03 | Benevento | Ascoli | Serie B | 1-2 |
| 2017-05-06 | Ascoli | Benevento | Serie B | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ascoli vs Benevento odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.3%, draw 29.5%, away 30.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.34 | 3.16 | 3.09 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.32 | 3.16 | 3.08 |
| Pinnacle | 2.41 | 3.26 | 3.15 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.00 | 3.00 |