Carrarese
vs
Empoli
0 – 1 Full time
| 46′ | J. CeesayF. Di Stefano | ||
| 51′ | Luca Magnino | ||
| 60′ | L. TopalovicJ. Martini | ||
| 61′ | E. BiondiniF. Bandinelli | ||
| 61′ | S. ShpendiB. Popov | ||
| 71′ | G. ParlantiN. Belloni | ||
| 71′ | M. CisseM. Finotto | ||
| 72′ | N. SchiaviM. Braunoder | ||
| 74′ | B. Popov | ||
| 78′ | F. RuggeriN. Cudrig | ||
| 78′ | M. EganK. Zedadka | ||
| 82′ | E. SaporitiD. Degli Innocenti | ||
| 87′ | Filippo Distefano |
Match stats
| 9 | Shots | 16 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 41 | Possession % | 59 |
| 1 | Corners | 7 |
| 10 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Saves | 5 |
| 351 | Accurate passes | 540 |
Carrarese vs Empoli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Carrarese vs Empoli
| Probability | Carrarese | Draw | Empoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.9% | 29.8% | 27.3% |
| Market | 38.7% | 29.8% | 31.5% |
| Final | 39.7% | 29.8% | 30.4% |
| Edge | +4.2% | -0.0% | -4.2% |
Why Carrarese
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 1.04.
- The market prices Carrarese below the model: +4.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Carrarese and Empoli expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.40
Carrarese and Empoli attack and defence ratings
Carrarese
Empoli
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Carrarese vs Empoli: result vs prediction
Carrarese 0 – 1 Empoli
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Carrarese vs Empoli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Carrarese | 39.7% | 2.52 | +4.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Carrarese | 39.7% |
| Draw | 29.8% | |
| Empoli | 30.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.3% |
| No | 50.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Carrarese win | 20.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 57.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.1% | |
| 0-0 | 10.4% |
Carrarese vs Empoli stats
Carrarese vs Empoli head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | Carrarese | Empoli | Italy Serie B | 3-0 |
| 2025-09-28 | Empoli | Carrarese | Italy Serie B | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Carrarese vs Empoli odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.7%, draw 29.8%, away 31.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.42 | 3.10 | 3.01 |
| Bet365 | 2.35 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.20 | 2.88 |
| Marathonbet | 2.39 | 3.10 | 3.02 |
| Pinnacle | 2.50 | 3.12 | 3.20 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .